Sunday, October 28, 2012

Four N.H.meetings today

Winter has arrived, and there is no flat racing today, with jumping at two British and two Irish tracks. The best card, despite some small fields, is at Aintree, but it will not be easy to find winners, woith several runners clearly looking at future races. This applies especially to the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 15.50 CET, part of a series which culminates at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Of the two German-breds here, top-weight Lovcen (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Henry Brooke) we much prefer the latter, a tough and consistent performer, while Lovcen, while much classier and a CD winner at the Grand National meeting,has a huge weight today. 4yo Eagle Rock (Tom Tate/ James Reveley) is a good stayer on the flat but has never run over long trips over hurdles, while 5yo Malaventa (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Tom Scudamore) stays really well but meets better opposition now. This is a really tricky race, but we hope Los Nadis runs well at a decent price. The 2 mile handicap chase at 16.25 is another very open race, with the much improved Merrion Square (Paul Nicholls/ Darly Jacob) the likely favourite after two easy wins in lesser company. Silver Roque (Fergal O´Brien/ Paddy Brennan) was another easy last-time-out winner, but we shall take a chance on Falcon Island (Colin Tizzard/ Aidan Coleman), pulled up when last seen at Newton Abbot in April , but whose stable is in great form.

At Wincanton, German-bred The Lemonpie (Brendan Powell senior and junior) can get back on the winning trail in the handicap hurdle at 14.20, but we can less sure about another German-bred Air Force One (Charlie Mann/ Sam Thomas), a Lando gelding, in the staying handicap chase at 14.55. Our choice here is Reach for the Stars (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien), from another in-form stable. This very lightly raced 11yo has only run 4 times in the last 5 1/2 years, so has obviously had problems, but he is certainly good enough to win off this rating. Minella Stars (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Skelton), who finally won last time after 9 successive places, also has a chance, but we think Nicholls´ best chances at his local track are Comeonginger at 15.30 and Suerta al Salto at 17.15, both ridden by Ryan Mahon and both making their debut over sticks.

In Ireland, there are some small fields at Galway, with only 5 runners in the Grade Three novice chase at 16.40. Argocat (Tom Taaffe/ Ben Cooper) as a 4yo gets a lot of weight from the others, but we prefer the Il Fenomeno (Noel Meade/ Davy Russell), making his fencing debut, and Twinlight (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), a smart hurdler who won his first chase in good style. Davy Russell should in any case be the jockey the follow here, and can win the opening maiden hurdle at 145.35 on Mouse Morris´ Rogue Angel, the following maiden hurdle on Gordon Elliott´s Shrapnel and the novice hurdle at 16.10 on Charlie Byrnes´ Skibabe, who has ex-German Landero to beat.

The fields are bigger but the quality lower at Wexford, where Paul Carberry can land a double for Noel Meade on Cops and Robbers at 14.15 and Benevolent at 15.50. The mare Lisrose (Harry de Bromhead/ Keith Donoghue) failed to last home last time and can win over a much shorter distance at 16.20, while German-bred Schelm (Ronnie O´Leary/ David Casey), who is on a long losing run but had come down in the weights, could be an interesting longshot in the handicap chase at 16.55.

Aintree - betting forecast:
1. Race: Vendor - Son Of Flicka - Holywell
2. Race: For Two - Handazan - Moidore
3. Race: First Fandango - Forgotten Gold - Dawn Commander
4. Race: Lovcen - Eagle Rock - Abnaki
5. Race: Merrion Square - Kid Cassidy - Lidar
6. Race: Antihero - Funny Star - Clondaw Kaempfer
7. Race: Sound Investment - Broadway Buffalo - Oscatara