Monday, October 29, 2012

5 meetings today

Redcar has passed an early morning inspection and racing goes ahead, but the going is very heavy and there will be plenty of non-runners. Our best bet here is Disclaimer (Sir Henry Cecil/ Ian Mongan) in the 9 furlongs 2yo maiden at 14.40 CET; this trip will take some getting today, but he is bred to stay and is in fact entered in next year´s Derby. He runs in the colours of Khalid Abdullah, whose lightly-raced Model Pupil (Charlie Hills/ Richard Hughes) can win the conditions race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.50 at Leicester:; he has not run since the spring but looks a cut above this opposition. Hughes can also take the best handicap here, over a mile at 15.20, with Richard Hannon´ s Shamaal Nibras, although this is quite a tricky race., and both Capaill Liath (Kevin and Amy Ryan) and ex-German Atlantic Sport (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) are also in with a chance. Hughes has some more good rides, although we don´t expect him to repeat last Monday´s feat of riding 7 winners!

The other 3 meetings are all over jumps, with the classier action coming from Ireland. The Grade Three Chase over 2 miles at Naas at 14.25 has only 5 runnerrs., but 3 of them are pretty smart. Hidden Cyclone (Sharkl Hanlon/ Andrew McNamara) has not run since January, but gets weight from his principal opponents and could be good enough; he was a close third to Gold Cup favourite Sir des Champs last time and had won 4 races in succession before that. The handicap hurdle at 15.55 here looks a hot race, but 11yo Dancing Tornado (Michael Hourigan/ JS McGarvey) keeps his form very well and should be thereabouts; however German-bred Sweet Shock (Michael O´Hare/ Robbie Colgan) won this last year and is only 3lbs higher and can score again. There could also be a German-bred winner at Galway, as Sam da Vinci (Tony and Danny Mullins), a son of Black Sam Bellamy, has shown gpod form in bumpers and can win on his hurdles debut at 14.35.

The most interesting runner at the British jumps meeting at Bangor is Tominator (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) in the novice hurdle at 16.30; he was a smart stayer on the flat and finished third in the Cesarewitch under a big weight earlier this month - if he jumps round safely, he should win this.

Redcar - betting forecast:
1. Race: Medici Dancer - Doodles - Mace The Ace
2. Race: Dream Vale - Beacon Tarn - Mill End Dancer
3. Race: Disclaimer - Backstage Tour - Train Hard
4. Race: Frederickthegreat - Urbonite - Barathea Dancer
5. Race: Red Tyke - Panettone - Dorry K
6. Race: Snooky - Gladsome - Miss Bunter
7. Race: Fama Mac - Piste - Northern Bolt
8. Race: Orwellian - Gracie`S Gift - Distant Sun