Saturday, September 29, 2012

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting: day three

a huge card at Newmarket today, including two Group One races, a Group Two and the Cambridgeshire, one of the biggest handicaps of the year and the first leg of the "autumn double". All races look very difficult and anybody who gets the tote placepot up today deserves a medal.
The card begins with the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo´s over a mile at 14.55 CET. Aidan O´Brien won this last year and now sends over Afonso De Sousa with son Joseph in the saddle. It is the stable´s only runner here and must be taken seriously, but on collateral form he should not beat Steeler (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon). Al Waab (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and the Monsun colt Excess Knowledge (John Gosden/ William Buick) are other candidates on a very open race.
The Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) for 2yo fillies at 15.25 is generally regarded as the top race of the year for the juvenile fillies- despite the fact that there were two similar races here yesterday. Richard Hannon has a good line to 2yo form and his Maureen (Richard Hughes) has to go on the short list, together with the unbeaten fillies Rosdhu Queen (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) and Winning Express (Ed McMahon/ Franny Norton). It would be nice to see the last.-named win for a small stable, but the race is wide open.
The other Group One is the Sun Chariot Stakes over a mile for filllies and mares, which has attracted a select field. Sir Henry Cecil has a strong hand here with Chachamaidee, ridden by stable jockey Queally, while the owners´ French jockey Christophe Soumillon partners Beauty Parlour. The latter is having her first race for Cecil, having won the French 1,000 Guineas earlier in the season for Elie Lellouche. Despite her defeat in the Fremch Oaks, she is clearly very smart and can win this, although Elusive Kate (Gosden/ Buick) looks a big danger.
The Cambridgeshire, a 9 furlongs handicap at 16.40 with 35 (!) runners, is the b ihggest betting frace of the day but presents an almost impossible challenge. Luck in running and the effect of the draw are two major factors here; we think that high numbers possibly have a small advantage, but the evidence yesterday was inconclusive.
At any rate, we have chosen 4 horses all drawn above 23 and hope we are right; they are top-weight Fury (Haggas/ Murtagh), Mijhaar (Riger Varian/ Neil Callan), French raider Talk About (Mikel Delzangles/ Umberto Rispoli) and Stevie Thunder (Ian Williams/ Graham Gibbons),who was runner-up last year to Prince of Johanne (Tom Tate/ Brendan Powell), but now meets him on much better terms.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fantastic Moon - Steeler - Al Waab
2. Race: Maureen - Rosdhu Queen - Winning Express
3. Race: Beauty Parlour - Elusive Kate - Chachamaidee

4. Race: Mukhadram - Chil The Kite - Bronze Angel
5. Race: Red Turban - Botanica - Ghanaian
6. Race: Cape Classic - Gold City - Johnny Castle
7. Race: Marshgate Lane - Brockwell - Trader Jack