Friday, September 28, 2012

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting: day two

A very high class card at Newmarket today, headed by the Group One Shadwell Fillies Mile for 2yo fillies at 15.55 CET. Certify (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona) and Ollie Olga (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) are both unbeaten in 3 starts and stand out here. Godolphin have a good record in this race and their filly, a narrow winner of the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time, possibly has the edge.

Winsili (John Gosden/ William Buick) is probably next best; she has a lot to find on the form book, but the stable is in great form with 3 winners here yesterday. Gosden and Buick probably have a better chance in the Group Two Joel Stakes over a mile at 15.20, but this is a very open race. She is a Royal Ascot winner and ran well in Chicago last time, but it will be tough against the colts. Most Improved (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon) lived up to his name by winning the St. James´s Palace Stakes, but is saddled with a Group One penalty, which does not make life easy, and in addition ran badly last time. We prefer the tough 8yo Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker), back to his best at Goodwood last time, and the consistent Side Glance (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), who never runs a bad race and was a distant third to Frankel at Royal Ascot.

Thge third group brace on thre cafrd is the Oh So Sharp Stakes for 2yo fillies, this time over 7 furlongs at 14.15. This could be another Godolphin win with Power of Light (Al Zarooni/ Barzalona), who won her only start in good style a fortnight ago at Newcastle. This is a big step up, but the opposition does not look overwhelming; Annie´ s Fortune (Alan Jarvis/ Michael Murphy), 4th to Ollie Olga at Goodwood, could be the best of them.

The listed race over a mile at 14.45 is also restricted to fillies and has a very strong field.No fewer than 6 of the 12 runners ran in a Sandown Group Three at the beginning of the month. Dank (Sir Michael Stoute/ Richard Hughes) ran on well to win that race by a neck from Lady´s First (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), with Irish History (al Zarooni/ Barzalona) 6th, Falls of Lora (al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) 8th, Moone´s my Name (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) 10th and Princess of Orange (Rae Guest/ Seb Sanders) 13th of 16 runners. Dank has a 3 lbs penalty npw and is by no means certain to confirm the form, while Falls of Lora had a terrible run and should certainly be much closer now. Of the others Chigun (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) won a good handicap at Ascot easily, but our selection is the very consistent Thistle Bird (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle), who has won 3 listed races this season and was runner-up to Premio Loco (runs in the Group Two 35 minutes later) on her only other start in 2012.

The final black type event is the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 17.00, and this could be another Godolphin benefit as Retrieve (Dettori) and Songcraft (Silvestre de Sousa), both trained by Saeed bin Suroor, have the best prospects here. Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes) and Arctic Cosmos (Gosden/ Buick) would both have a chance on their best form, but they have not showed that for quite a while.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Waterway Run - Power Of Light - Califante
2. Race: Thistle Bird - Dank - Chigun
3. Race: Most Improved - Joviality - Side Glance
4. Race: Certify - Ollie Olga - Winsili
5. Race: Stamford - King`s Request - Seek Again
6. Race: Retrieve - Songcraft - Harris Tweed
7. Race: Oxford Charley - Jo`Burg - Henry Allingham
8. Race: Exning Halt - Odin - The Tiger