Friday, September 21, 2012

Listed races at Ayr and Newbury

Some quite decent races today with listed events at both Ayr and Newbury. The Scottish race is for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.20 CET and, as the British runners appear to be nothing special, we expect the two Irish raiders to come out on top- Boston Rocker (Eddie Lynam/ Shane Foley) and Zoola (Andrew Heffernan/ Robert Winston) with slight preference for the former. There are 2 ex-Germans running in the 2 mile handicap at 17.35.

Bolivia (Lucy Wadham/ Joe Fanning) and Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Neil Farley). Los Nadis, also a multiple winner over jumps, is one of our favourite horses, but we are not sure how he will like the heavy ground and on this occasion prefer Bolivia, a daughter of Monsun, who was group-placed at 3 in Germany. The 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 is best watched for clues as to how the draw will affect tomorrow´s big sprints, but we cannot resist having a little bet on Come On Dave (David and Adrian Nicholls), who is much improved and is still well handicapped with bottom weight here.

At Newbury the going is good to firm and the listed race over 7 furlongs at 17.50 looks very open. Producer (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is penalised for winning a Group Three at Goodwood last time; Zumbi (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) was a close third and is now 3 lbs better off, but with Hannon/ Hughes team in top form we still prefer their runner. Scarf (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) , an ex-Australian horse whose only British win came over this CD, is a danger, as are the multiple winners Van Ellis (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon) and I´m So Glad (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley), but our selection is Edinburgh Knight (Paul d´Arcy/ Paul Hanagan), who has been running without much luck in top races and can score in this lower grade. Otherwise the 4 races for 2yo´s should be carefully watched here, as they have frequently produced subsequent big winners. This applies particularly to the conditions race over a mile at 16.40, won in the past by such stars as Shergar an d Rainbow Quest. Wentworth (Hannon/ Hughes) may not reach such heights, but he is regarded as one of the top juveniles in his powerful stable and can win today.