Ayr Gold Cup

There is some good racing at Newbury and Newmarket today, but the main action is at Ayr with the Ayr Gold Cup, and the two consolation races, as the big betting races of the day. However we shall start with the Group Three race for 2yo fillies at 15.50 CET. Royal Rascal (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) and City Girl (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) were third and fourth in the Lowther Stakes, which is the best form on offer, and we expect the former to confirm the fom. This is not a great race and it would be no surprise to see Mary´s daughter (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton), who has little chance on ratings after winning a modest handicap last time, run in to the money.

The Doonside Cup at 17.40 is a listed race over 10 furlongs and we strongly fancy Arrigo (Ibrahim Al Malki/ Seb Sanders), who won the Union-Rennen for Schlenderhan last year. He has only run twice since being sold to his present connections, but showed definite promise a fortnight ago when 5th in a Group Three at Kempton, and we think that this trip on heavy ground could be ideal for the Shirocco colt. Opera Gal (Andrew Balding/ Crowley) ran a good race at Baden-Baden last time and could follow him home.

Now to the 6 furlong handicaps: the Ayr Gold Cup at 16.30 is always one of the hottest races of the year, and the consolation races, the Bronze Cup at 14.45 and the Silver Cup at 15.20 are no easier. Even with a couple of non-runners there are well over 20 runners in each race, and one could easily nominate a dozen without finding a single placed horse. The heavy ground and the uncertainty regarding the draw are further complications. Historically high numbers have an advantage, but yesterday´s results left mixed messages on this score. The trainers to watch our for are Kevin Ryan, David Nicholls and Richard Fahey, but they all have several runners so it is hard to make a choice.

The winner of the Ayr Gold Cup will need to be have group race ability, and the obvious starting points are the two top weights, Maarek, trained in Ireland by David Nagle and ridden by claimer Mark Enright -more usually seen over jumps- and The Cheka (Eve Johnson Houghton/ George Baker), runner-up on heavy ground in the July Cup. Maarek has had a fantastic season, winning five times, including on heavy, and only last week won a Group Three at the Curragh. He also won a Group Three on heavy ground at Newcastle at the end of June., beating Boastful (Elaine Burke/ Michael Metcalfe) and Regal Parade (Milton Bradley/ Dale Swift) into the places witjh Our Jonathan (Ryan/ Crowley) well behind. Our Jonathan and Regal Parade are both previous winners of the Gold Cup, but it is Boastful who now looks best handicapped of this group. The locals will be rooting for Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee), but there has been no Scottish-trained winner of Scotland´s most famous race for 37 years and we do not expect that to change now. Almost anything can happen here, but Maarek and The Cheka look the most reliable runners, despite their high weight, while Boastful is the best longshot for us.

Our 3 against the field in the Bronze Cup are Jack Dexter (Goldie/ Lee) -the likely favourite- and two Fahey runners Coolminx (Laura Barry) and Baldemar (Barry McHugh), but CD specialist Cheveton (RJ Price/ Tagdh O´Shdea) also deserves a mention. And in the Silver Cup our 3 are Kaldoun Kingdom (Fahey/ George Chaloner), Fast Shot (Easterby/ Allan) and Ancient Cross (Mick Easterby/ Freddie Tylicki).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jack Dexter - Cheveton - Bonnie Charlie
2. Race: Highland Colori - Amadeus Wolfe Tone - Kaldoun Kingdom
3. Race: Royal Rascal - City Girl - Melody Of Love
4. Race: Our Jonathan - Maarek - Hawkeyethenoo
5. Race: Pearl Castle - Bonnie Lesley - Dusky Queen
6. Race: Opera Gal - Arrigo - Circumvent
7. Race: White Frost - Alejandro - Common Touch
8. Race: Getabuzz - Albert Bridge - Stock Hill Fair