Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown

This is one of the most important days of the year in Irish racing and the Champion Stakes at 18.45 CET has attracted a small but strong field, including two British runners, Nathaniel (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Snow Fairy (Ed Dunlop/ Frankie Dettori). Nathaniel has been favourite for this race ever since betting began, but we are not convinced; Gosden has said all along that the Arc is the main target, and we think that 10 furlongs on fast ground is too short for him. For Snow Fairy however iot is perfect, and she was beaten only half a length in this last year. She came back after a break due to injury with a great performance at Deauville last time, but the bounce factor could be a problem. We therefore expect an Irish winner, which could be either St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) or Born to Sea (John Oxx/ Johnny Murttagh). O´Brien always targets this race and has won it already 7 times this century..He also saddles Daddy Long Legs (Seamie Heffernan) as pacemaker, a pretty good horse himself if in top form, and conditions seem ideal for St. Nicholas Abbey - fast ground, a fast pace and a left-handed track.

We think he will take all the beating. although Born to Sea at the likely odds is an interesting alternative. This half-brother to Sea the Stars (won this in 2009) and champion sire Galileo out of Arc winner Urban Sea has a fantastic pedigree; he has so far failed to live up to it, but he is now racing on fast ground for the first time and we think that this is what he needs. The Matron Stakes for fillies over a mile at 17.40 is the other Group One race on the card, and last year´s winner Emulous (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) will attempt to repeat that victory. She finished behind Chachamaidee (Sir Henry Cecil/ Toim Queally) at Royal Ascot but could reverse that form here. However Aidan O´Brien has another strong hand with 3 runners, the pick of which is undoubetdly Maybe, ridden by his son Joseph. She looked a champion last year when winning all her 5 starts, but has failed to score so far this season; she did however finish third in the 1,000 Guineas, 5th in the Oaks, which w as too far, and 5th in the Falmouth on bad ground. Conditions look right for her today and she is our selection.

The O´Brien´s can also take the listed race for 2yo´s at 17.10 with Battle of Marengo, while the Weld/ Smullen team can score twice with Big Break (an own sister to Famous Name) in the opening 2yo fillies maiden at 16.40, and Speaking of Which in the Group Three ten furlongs race at 18.10.