Arc trials at Longchamp

There is an excellent card at Longchamp today, with the Arc trials - 3 weeks before the real thing- and the Group One Prix du Moulin taking centre stage. The Moulin unfortunately only has 4 runners, after Aidan O´Brien withdrew Excelebration (and all his other possible runners here), but is still a fascinating race in which we hope to see Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), twice runner-up to Frankel and out of a German mare, succeed at the main expense of Moonlight Cloud (Freddie Head/ Thierry Jarnet), very unlucky last time at Deauville, where she finished just in front of German 2,000 Guineas winner Caspar Netscher (Alan McCabe/ Shane Kelly). The Aga Khan´s 3yo filly Sarkiyla (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christophe Lemaire) gets a lot of weight and as the winner of 4 of her 5 races should not be underestimated, even though this is quite a step-up in grade.

The Aga Khan is also hopeful of winning the Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares over 1 1/2 miles at 16.10, in which he has 3 runners; Shareta, runner-up in the Arc last year, should be the best of them. She probably want fast ground, while last year´s winner Galikova, a sister to the great Goldikova and one of 3 Wertheimer runners, would prefer cut in the ground. Heavy ground put paid to Princess Highway´s (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) chances in the Irish Oaks, but she looked very smart at Royal Ascot and is a real threat, while German hopes are pinned to Salomina (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke), unbeaten in 4 races including the German Oaks. She meets much tougher opposition here, but we expect her to run well.

The two real Arc trials are the Foy for older horses at 14.30 and the Niel for 3yo´s at 15.40, both with small fields as usual. The Niel has been the best Arc trial this century, biut there is a strong suspicion that the 2012 crop is not much good. Saonaois (JP Gauvin/ Antoine Hamelin) won the French Derby, but we think that was a fluke, and prefer Last Train (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) and Bayrir (Royer-Dupré/ Lemaire) from the two most powerful yards in France.

The Foy sees the European debut of the top Japanese performer Orfevre (´Yasutoshi Ikee/ Chistophe Soumillon) - he is our early Arc selection, so we hope he runs well! He has Meandre (Fabre/ Guyon) to beat, but the improved Fiorente (Sir Michael Stoute/ Kieren Fallon), a son of Monsun, is also dangerous. We also hope to see Flamingo Fantasy (Sascha Smrczek/ Olivier Peslier) run well in the Prix Gladiateur over 3000 metres at 17.20, while Peslier can also win the opening Prix du Petit Couvert on Robert Cowell´s Monsieur Joe.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Inxile - Stepper Point - Monsieur Joe
2. Race: Al Tair - Ghalib - Tm Fred Texas
3. Race: Orfevre - Meandre - Orfevre
4. Race: Shamalgan - Bungur - Best Of Order
5. Race: Saonois - Last Train - Bayrir
6. Race: Galikova - Shareta - Yellow And Green
7. Race: Moonlight Cloud - Farhh - Moonlight Cloud
8. Race: Lone Ranger - Ivory Land - Kasbah Bliss
9. Race: Zaubertanzerin - Kiora - Saint Louet