Friday, August 03, 2012

rest of Glorious Goodwood (fourth day)

top race at Goodwood today is the Group Two King George Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.45 CET. Many of the top distance specialists around are entered here and the race is sure to be fast and furious: if you blink, you´ll miss it. Most of them have met already this season, for example in the King´s Stand at Royal Ascot or in the July Cup. Australian hope Ortensia (Paul Messara/ William Buick) ran in both those races and though unplaced both times we think he is the one to beat here, despite a penalty for winning a top sprint at Meydan.Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) won the Abbaye last year, and was just in front of Ortensia at Royal Ascot, so is an obvious danger.
Another group race is for 3yo´s over a mile at 15.35 and the clear form choice here is Gregorian (John Gosden/ Buick), third at Royal Ascot and runner-up in the Jean Prat. We don´t believe that Trumpet Major (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), penalised for winning the Craven Stakes in April, can concede him weight. More dangerous are Stipulate, representing the in-form team of Sir Henry Cecil and Tom Queally - four group wins already at this meeting - and Red Duke (John Quinn/ Johnny Murtagh), third in the German 2000 Guineas.
The opening Group Three over 1 1/2 miles at 15.00 looks very tricky, with several runners moving up in grade or distance, such as the likely favourite Gatewood (Gosden/ Buick). We fancy Dandino (James Fanshawe/ Murtagh) here, as we have not forgotten how well he ran for a long way in the Grosser Preis von Berlin last year.
The mile handicap at 16.10 is the big betting race of the day and even without ante-post favourite Trade Commissioner, a non-runner, it looks really competitive with 20 runners, every one of which has a chance. Our 3 against the field are Excellent Guest (Gerorge Margarson/ Queally), Decent Fella (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and Sir Reginald (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), although all 3 are arguably better at 7 furlongs. In the concluding 5 furlongs handicap we go for Larwood (Henry Candy/ Martin Dwyer), named after the fastest and best of all, and Swan Song (Balding/ Fortune), who has a superb sprint pedigree, being by Green Desert out of champion Lochsong.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Songcraft - Gatewood - Dubai Prince
2. Race: Gregorian - Aljamaaheer - Trumpet Major
3. Race: Excellent Guest - Prince Of Johanne - Fulbright
4. Race: Ortensia - Hamish Mcgonagall - Tangerine Trees
5. Race: Janoub Nibras - Oasis Cannes - A Certain Romance
6. Race: Gamilati - Gracia Directa - Dysphonia
7. Race: Place In My Heart - Larwood - Swan Song