Friday, August 03, 2012

German runners at Glorious Goodwood

there was a German winner at Goodwood yesterday, although admittedly Gdestüt Röttgen´s Wild Coco is trained at Newmarket by Sir Henry Cecil, and we are hoping for another victory in the Group Three Oak Tree Stakes for fillies and mares over 7 furlongs at 17.50 CET. Two of the 15 runners are trained in Germany, Gloria Directa (Dominik Moser/ Robert Winston) and Survey (Mario Hofer/ Tom Queally) and we expect them both to run well. Gloria Directa is much improved this season and has won her last 3 races, including a fillies Group Three at York with this jockey; however she is penalised for that success and all those races were over 6 furlongs, although her trainer does not expect the extra furlong to be a problem. We certainly expect Survey, who is better drawn and has the services of the meeting´s leading jockey to have the better chance of the German fillies. She has not run a bad race all season and is clearly one of the best German fillies over a mile or less, having only b een beaten just over a length by the smart Cherry Danon at Hamburg. The main dangers could be the two Godolphin fillies, Dysphonia (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and especially Galimati (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori), who had smart form in the spring at Meydan but has not run since. Regal Realm (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore) is also coming off a break but looks a threat, while Sioux Rising (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) was runner-up to Gloria Directa at York and now meets her on better terms. The problem for Survey could be the going as she does not like it soft, but if the rain stays away we think she has an excellent each-way chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Songcraft - Gatewood - Dubai Prince
2. Race: Gregorian - Aljamaaheer - Trumpet Major
3. Race: Excellent Guest - Prince Of Johanne - Fulbright
4. Race: Ortensia - Hamish Mcgonagall - Tangerine Trees
5. Race: Janoub Nibras - Oasis Cannes - A Certain Romance
6. Race: Gamilati - Gracia Directa - Dysphonia
7. Race: Place In My Heart - Larwood - Swan Song