Nunthorpe Stakes at York

the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.40 CET is the top race at York today and indeed one of the best sprint races of the season. These big sprints are always very tricky, and this one even more difficult than usual, as not only is there a maximum field of 19 runners (Kingsgate Native is a non-runners), much depends on the state of the going. Up till yesterday morning the going was firm, but there were several heavy showers in ther afternoon and it is now officially good. Any more rain today (which has not fallen yet but is certainly possible) would probably get into the ground. If the ground stays on top, then the three likeliest winners are Bated Breath (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle), 2010 winner Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Wayne Lordan) and the Australian mare Ortensia (Paul Messara/ William Buick). The interesting one in any case is Pearl Secret (David Barron/ Jamie Spencer), unbeaten in 4 starts but never yet in such a hot race as this, while Hamish McGonagall (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) is a very speedy sort who is an absolute CD specialist. He is drawn one, and although most of the winners so far have come up the stands rail (i.e.high numbers) it may not be the case today that the outside has an advantage. Ortensia is drawn in the middle, while Bated Breath, Sole Power and Pearl Secret are all on the outside. Our selection is Ortensia, but only if it stays dry today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Expert Fighter - Silver Lime - Kirthill
2. Race: Morawij - Pearl Acclaim - Heavy Metal
3. Race: Stipulate - Side Glance - Tazahum
4. Race: Bated Breath - Ortensia - Pearl Secret
5. Race: Wentworth - Bright Strike - Brave Command
6. Race: Burning Blaze - Royal Aspiration - Majestic Moon