Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Frankel runs today at York

the York Ebor meeting, which starts today and goes on to Saturday, is probably only second tzo Royal Ascot in the Brotish calendar, and most Yorksghiremen woiuld argue that it is even better than that meetzing. Certainly today´s card is excellent and is headed by the Group One International Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.40 CET, the race chosen for the great Frankel´s first attempt at racing beyond a mile. This race has always been the plan for the Galileo 4yo, owned by the race sponsor, who also has Twice Over (Ian Mongan), last year´s winner, and pacemaker Bullet Train (Eddie Ahern) engaged. But Frankel (with the stable´s main jockey Tom Queally) is obviously the one everybody hopes will win, and trainer Sir Henry Cecil is expected to saddle the horse in person despite his health problems..
Frankel is officially rated the best horse in ther world by some considerable margin, having won all his 12 races so far (almost all of them Group Ones) with the greatest of ease, and there seems no reason to believe that he will not get the extra two furlongs today. A lot will depend on Queally getting him relaxed and settled, but he has seemed much more amenable this year. His usual pacemaker, his older brother Bullet Train, is there to ensure that this will happen.
However it will be a tactical race as Aidan O´Brien also has 3 runners; two of them, Robin Hood (Seamus Heffernan) and Windsor Palace (Colm O´Donoghue) - who was last here last year- are presumably the pacemakers the main hope St. Nicholas Abbey (Joseph O´Brien). St. Nicholas Abbey is pretty smart and likes cominmg off a strong pace, as we saw in last year´s Breeders Cup, and will certainly try to make a race of it. There are rules against team tactics, but oacemakers are allowed, and with 3 Cecils and 3 O´Brien´s in the race, it will all come down to tactics, but probably the best horse in the race will win and that is certainly Frankel. Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) is another interesting contender; he had no chance against Frankel in the Sussex Stakes, but will probably be better suited by this trip, over which he ran well in the Eclipse and Prince of Wales, he is out of German Group One winner Gonbarda, by Lando, and should have no problems with the distance, nor with the going, although the trainer has apparently said that he would like some rain.
So would Marco Botti for Planteur, and he also needs a new jockey as Ryan Moore broke his wrist yesterday and will be out of action for some time. Planteur had very useful form when trained in France, but he is not up to Frankel´s level and we also do not expect him to trouble St. Nicholas Abbey and Farhh, who look the only credible threats. Twice Over is next best. although last yeat´s renewal was quite weak, so that form would not be nearly good enough.
We do not expect Frankel to be beaten, but he is not a betting proposition at the likely odds of around 8-1 on; so our advice is either St. Nicholas Abbey or Farhh each way, assuming you can get the proper place odds.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Zero Money - Tax Free - Rex Imperator
2. Race: Dundonnell - Afonso De Sousa - Ebn Arab
3. Race: Main Sequence - Noble Mission - Thomas Chippendale
4. Race: Frankel - St Nicholas Abbey - Farhh
5. Race: Western Prize - Never Can Tell - Olympiad
6. Race: Sir John Hawkwood - Hajras - Kalk Bay