2,000 Guineas at Newmarket

The classic season starts today with the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, and with 18 runners the 2,000 Guineas at 16.10 CET looks very open. However the betting is very one-sided with Camelot (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) a very short-priced favourite, following his impressive win in the Racing Post Trophy last October. He could well win, but in our view he represents no value at odds of around 6-4. O´Brien has won this race 4 times this century, but has not in fact won an English classic for the past 4 years. The distance could also be on the short side for a son of Montjeu, while it might be ideal for O´Brien´s other runner Power (Ryan Moore) and also for the third Irish runner Born to Sea (John Oxx/Johnny Murtagh), a half-brother to Galileo and Sea the Stars.

There are also 3 French runners engaged - French Fifteen (Nicholas Clement/ Olivier Peslier), Abtaal (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Christophe Soumillon) and Hermival (Mikel Delzangles/ Gregory Benoist), who finished 1-2-3 in that order in the Prix Djebel. We would not be surprised to see Abtaal to come out best of this trio now.There are not enough form lines to predict with confidence whether the French, Irish or British will come out in top, but on balance we expect an Irish victory. John Oxx is a trainer we greatly admire and Born to Sea is our choice, even though he has to show improved form to win here.

A British victory is to our mind unlikely. The most obvious candidates are Trumpet Major (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) easy winner of the Craven Stakes over this CD, and Caspar Netscher (Alan McCabe/ Shane Kelly), who won the other major trial, the Greenham at Newbury. The dark horse of the race is Top Offer (Roger Charlton/ Jack Doyle),a very easy winner of his only start, but that was last August. and to win a classic on only his second start would be an amazing feat.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fury - Memory Cloth - Circumvent
2. Race: Meandre - Fiorente - Dunaden
3. Race: Camelot - Abtaal - Born To Sea
4. Race: Mayson - Hamish Mcgonagall - Margot Did
5. Race: Es Que Love - Ultrasonic - Mince
6. Race: Noble Mission - Mariner`s Cross - Mister Music
7. Race: Archbishop - Frog Hollow - Campanology