They´re off! Flat season starts today

After 4 months of mainly very poor sport on the all-weather, the flat season proper finally starts today with the first turf fixture of the year at Doncaster. The traditional feature race is the Lincoln Handicap over a straight mile at 16.15 CET. With 22 runners this is as usual very difficult, but we shall try to make things easier by assuming (or hoping) that there is still a bias towards the stands side, i.e. a high number draw, although we won´t know for sure until the race is run. This means going against the likely favourite Eton Forever (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), drawn 7, an easy winner of the Spring Mile a year ago and who ran really well in a similar race over this CD when last seen in September. We also oppose the second favourite Fury (William Haggas/ Adam Beschizza), drawn 9, whose stable has an excellent record here; he looked smart at 2 but lost his form completely last year and now returns as a gelding off what looks a very favourable rating. Obviousl y these two could easily win, but we do not think they represent good value and one has to draw the line somewhere. There are still plenty of possibilities and we take 4 against the field: Mia´s Boy (Chris Dwyer/ Raul da Silva), drawn 14, Cocozza (Marco Botti/ Joe Fanning), drawn 15, Mull of Killough (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Shane Kelly), drawn 21 and third here in 2010, and Light from Mars (John Quinn/ Tom Eaves). Obviously thie is very speculative, but our main selection is Mia´s Boy, who is not particularly well handicapped, but is very tough and consistent and goes well at this track.

The Spring Mile at 15.05 is equally tough, but using the same criteria, we take as our main hopes Reve de Nuit (Alan McCabe/ Pat Smullen), drawn 18, Shamdarley (Michael Dods/ Philip Makin), drawn 16, and Crown Counsel (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), drawn 15. The listed Cammidge Trophy over 6 furlongs at 15.40 has attracted a classy field. The 3yo Bannock (Johnston/ Fanning) is an interesting runner, who won 3 races from 10 starts last year and has made a good start to 2012, but we do not like this age group against older horses in March and prefer Royal Rock (Chris Wall/Chris Catlin) and Sirius Prospect (Dean Ivory/ Shane Kelly), who won 5 of his last 6 starts in 2011. However we select Royal Rock, who ended 2011 with an excellent fourth place in a much better race at Ascot.

Doncaster - betting forecast:
1. Race: Mont Ras - Captain Bertie - Shamdarley
2. Race: Sirius Prospect - Royal Rock - The Cheka
3. Race: Eton Forever - Fury - Cocozza
4. Race: Heavy Metal - Deepest Blue - Maypole Joe
5. Race: Sir Graham Wade - Kaafel - Lelaps
6. Race: Reachforthebucks - Yojimbo - The Fun Crusher
7. Race: Dunhoy - Alfred Hutchinson - Good Boy Jackson
8. Race: One For Joules - One Of Twins - Yorksters Prince