Monday, January 02, 2012

Testing ground today

The ground will be testing at all 4 N.H. meetings today, and good betting opportunities look rare, there are some very small fields as well. The best race is the Sussex National, a handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.45 CET at Plumpton, but this is a very substandard affair when one considers the other Nationals run. Top weight Strongbow Legend (Charlie Longsdon/ Kielan Woods) made all to win over an extended 3 miles at Hereford last time but has been up a stone for his efforte, so faces no easy task over this extra half-mile. Mid Div and Creep (Lawnay Hill/ Gina Andrews) is a useful hunter-chaser but difficult to evaluate in a handicap, while Diamond Brook (Nick Williams/ Wayne Hutchinson) has been a bit below form. In our view the safest bet is Rate of Knots (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLernon) who has not won for almost 2 years, but usually runs into the money and goes well on this ground. Earlier, trainer Alan King and Wayne Hutchinson can land a double with Balder Succes at 13.40 and Kumbeshwar at 14.15

The team to follow at Ayr should be Donald McCain and Jason Maguire, who have good chances with Super Duty at 13.20, Amron Lad at 13,55, Nowurhurlin at 16.00 and Realignment at 16.35, but our best bet here is German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Henry Brooke), who has top-weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.25; he failed to get home over 3 miles last time, but this trip of 2 1/2 miles looks his ideal distance.

Another German-bred we like today is Promised Wings (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon), who showed much improved form last time over hurdles and can win on his first outing over fences at 16.10 at Folkestone; another recent winner Triangular (Tom George / Paddy Brennan) is the obvious danger. Paul Nicholls could have a hort-priced double here with Castletownsend at 13.30 and Picture This at 15.05, both with Harry Skelton on board.

The fields are bigger, but not much better in terms of quality, at the Irish meeting at Cork. Ruby Walsh had a day to forget at Cheltenham yesterday, but can get back on the winning trail here with Final Approach at 14.10 and Simenon half an hour later, both trained by Willie Mullins, who can also take the bumper at 16.45 with Perfect Gentleman, with son Paddy in the saddle.