New Year´s Day at Cheltenham

the traditional New Year´s Day fixture at Cheltenham has frequently been spoilt by the weather, but that is not the case today and conditions look perfect for a very classy and interesting card. As so often, the powerful Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh team is very strongly represented with fancied runners in 5 of the 7 races. They can start by taking the opening novice hurdle at 13.30 CET with Jump City, although strictly speaking he is held on form by Barbatos (Ian Williams/ Paddy Brennan), who finished in front of him last time; however we feel that the Nicholls runner is capable of further improvement. One of Nicholls´ big hopes for 2012 runs in the next race, the Grade Two Dipper Novices Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 14.05- Sonofvic, who ran Grands Crus to 2 lengths last time. He faces two tough opponents here, Solix (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who has his last 2 races very easily, despite not jumping too well, and Invictus (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), who has won his last 3 races and was particularly impressive in much lesser company last time. However Sonofvic gets weight from them both and we expect him to win here.

Nicholls has withdrawn his runner from the handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 14.35, in which the 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) has top weight. At these weights however we think that Minella Theatre (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) and last year´s runner-up Richards Sundance (Vic Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan) have better chances. In both the next two races, competitive handicaps, a chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.10 and a 3 miles hurdle race at 15.45, Nicholls saddles two runners, the top-weight ridden by claimer Ryan Mahon and a much more strongly fancied lightweight with Ruby in the saddle. Both these events look very open, but Ruby certainly has good chances here with German-bred Ghizao and Oscargo respectively.

The next race, a conditions event over hurdles at 15.20, could be the most interesting event of the day, despite having only 4 runners. Nicholls runs his lightly-raced but very promising Poungach, who gets 8 lbs from the proven performer Oscar Whisky (Henderson/Geraghty). Oscar Whisky is a leading hope for the Champion Hurdle, in which he finished 3rd last year, and we think that he will be up to the task, but Poungach should certainly not be underestimated. Finally the listed juvenile bumper at 16.50 rounds off the day with a large field, including 5 unbeaten runners. Trespassing (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan) was most impressive on his debut; he has an excellent pedigree and we hope that he is good enough to beat this field.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Barbatos - Hard To Swallow - One Term
2. Race: Sonofvic - Invictus - Solix
3. Race: Minella Theatre - Richard`S Sundance - Earth Planet
4. Race: Ghizao - Duke Of Lucca - Havingotascoobydo
5. Race: Oscargo - Kayf Aramis - Get Me Out Of Here
6. Race: Oscar Whisky - Poungach - Cockney Trucker
7. Race: Trespasser - The New One - Flaming Arrow