Sunday, January 22, 2012

German-breds to score at Fairyhouse today?

Today´s main event is the Grade Two Normans Grove Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 14.50 CET at Fairyhouse, and German-bred Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Davy Russell) is clear top-rated. The super-consistent 8yo is one of the best Irish performers over this distance, and was runner-up to top-class Big Zeb on his last two starts; those pieces of form would see him the winner today.

Blazing Tempo (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) seems much improved and looks the main danger. The next race, a beginners chase over the same trip at 15.25, should also go to a German-bred, the Monsun gelding Shot from the Hip (Edward O´Grady/ Mark Walsh); he was a smart hurdler, and although he did not jump that brilliantly on his fencing debut, should still be too good for these opponents. The rest of the Fairyhouse card looks like being another Willie Mullins benefit, and we expect him to win the opening maiden hurdle with either Vesper Bell (Ruby Walsh) or Lord Gale (Paul Townend), the listed mares novice hurdle at 1420 with Ceol Rua (Walsh) and the concluding bumper with Champagne Fever, with the trainer´s son Paddy in the saddle.

The racing at the 3 British tracks looks much less exciting despite some large fields. Nicky Henderson sends runners to Market Rasen and can take the opening novice hurdle at 14.30 with ex-French Trozulon (David Bass). Thanks for Coming (Jerry McGrath) at 15.30 and Great Reason (RJ Killoran) at 16 .05 also have chances, but both races look very tricky. Our best bet here is O Crotaigh (AD Brown/ Richie McGrath) in the handicap chase at 16.35. Since arriving from Ireland he has shown great improvement, and has won twice very easily at this track, making all on each occasion; he is up quite a lot in the weights but we think he can defy the extra weight and score again.
Henderson also has runners in both divisions of the novice hurdle that open the card at Towcester- Native Beauty at 14.10 and Floreat half an hour later, both ridden by Andrew Tinkler. Both could go well, but we have a slight preference for Bygones Sovereign (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) and Record Breaker (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) respectively. Ex- German Engai (David Bridgwater/ Tom Phelan) runs in the second division, but his U.K. debut was very disappointing and we would rather wait to see how he acclimatises before betting on him.

Pipe and Scudamore can also take the beginners chase at 16.45 with Chartreux, who would probably have won last time at Hereford if he had kept on his feet; he was odds-on that day and can recover losses this time.
Best race on the all-weather at Kempton is the conditions event over 7 furlongs at 17.25. Hazzard County (David Simcock/ Laura Pike) and Nazreef (Húghie Morrison/ Hayley Turner) can fight out the finish here. They finished second and third over this CD in a very close finish last time, but we would not be surprised to see Nazreef reverse the placings today. Our best bet here is Shaunas Spirit (Dean Ivory/ Shane Kelly), who has top weight in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.25. She was an easy winner over this CD on Wednesday and probably had much more in hand than the 6 lbs penalty she carries today.