prix de l`Arc de Triomphe today at 16.15 CET

the prix de l`Arc de Triomphe is beyond any doubt the world´s best horse race, and today´s edition is one of the most open ever. Whereas in some previous years there has been one outstanding candidate - e.g. Dalakhani, Zarkava or Sea the Stars -who then went on to justify favouritism, this time there are 13 plausible winners in the field of 16 and it is not at all clear who will head the market. Given the popularity of the Aga Khan on French racecourses and his excellent record in this race, it is possible that Sarafina (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christophe Lemaire) will start favourite, but British bookies will give you 5-1. She may not even be the stable´s number one, as Reliable Man (Gerald Mosse) is equally fancied, although the French Derby winner would be happier on easier going. Sarafina had a very troubled race last year, and again had to squeeze thorigh a gap last time out, and with an outside draw this race will not play to her strengths.
The first 3 from 2010 meet again: Workforce (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), Nakayama Festa (Y.Ninoyina/ Masayoshi Ebina) and Sarafina , but to be honest, we fancy none of them. If an older horse has to win, it will be in our opinion the other Japanese runner Hiruno d´Amour (M.Kon/ Shinji Fujita), the ex-Australian and now Irish hope So You Think (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) or the filly (Snow Fairy (Ed Dunlop/ Frankie Dettori), who finished runner-up to So You Think in the Irish Champion but could possibly turn the tables over this distance and on this better ground.
All 4 runners from the Prix Foy, the main trial for older horses, meet again: Sarafina, Hiruno d´Amour, St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien and possibly going to be used as a pacemaker) and Nakayama Festa. The trial for 3yo´s the same day was won by Reliable Man from Meandre (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), who has been supplemented and whose trainer has won this race 7 times. The Prix Vermeille for fillies on the same card was won by Galikova (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) from Testosterone (Pascal Bary/Stephane Paquier) and Shareta (Royer-Dupre/ Thierry Jarnet and another possible pacemaker today). Of these Galikova, a half-sister to the great Goldikova is clearly the best and could complete a great day for her trainer and jockey.
The 8 3yo´s include the winner of the Irish Derby Treasure Beach (O´Brien/ Colm O´Donoghue), St. Leger Masked Marvel (John Gosden/ William Buick), Prix du Jockey Club (Reliable Man), Grand Prix de Paris (Meandre) and of course our German hope Danedream (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke), winner of the Grosser Preis von Berlin and Grosser Preis von Baden. She is one of 3 supplementary runners, the other being Masked Marvel, who also has a German background, and we certainly expect her to run a big race, although whether she is good enough to win an Arc remains to be seen. She ie well drawn in 2, which means that Starke can probably get her in a good position on the rail; the pace looks certain to be fast and furious -it usually is - with some pacemakers in the field, though the stable tactics of Aidan O´Brien´s runners are still not clear.
We hope Danedream can win, but everything will have to fall right; the main dangers could be Masked Marvel and Hiruno d´Amour, who has been heavily backed, but as said above, there are 13 possible winners here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kasbah Bliss - Ley Hunter - Celtic Celeb
2. Race: Prohibit - Mar Adentro - Requinto
3. Race: Zantenda - Yellow Rosebud - Elusive Kate
4. Race: Dabirsim - Salure - American Devil
5. Race: Goldikova - Marchand D`Or - Dream Ahead
6. Race: Galikova - Workforce - Sarafina
7. Race: Ragiyah - Al Tair - Asraa Min Albarq
8. Race: Sandy`s Charm - Announce - Nahrain
9. Race: On The Road Jack - Le Bosphore - Roatan