Tuesday, September 27, 2011

3 meetings today

Tuesday is almost always the worst day of the week as far as quality racing is concerned, and today is no exception. At Chepstow the mile handicap at 17.00 CET looks the most interesting race and Encore un Fois (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), just touched off last time at Brighton by Ancient Greece (George Baker/ Dane O´Neill), tries to take revenge for that defeat, but there could again be little in it.

However there are plenty more with chances here and we prefer the in-form Mr. Udawaga (Bernard Llewellyn/ Martin Lane), going for a CD hat-trick, and top-weight Mr. Osgood (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley). The "best" race of the day is probably the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.40 at Ayr, in which Dare to Dance (Jeremy Noseda/ Paul Hanagan) will start a red-hot favourite. Winner of the last two of his three starts, he was ante-post favourite for last week´ s Cambridgeshire until Noseda pulled him out because of the fast ground. The going will be much softer today and he is the most likely winner, but he is no value at the likely odds; perhaps Tres Coronas (David Barron/ Lee Newman) or Calaf (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) are better each-way alternatives. Top-weight Waldvogel (Nicky Richards/ Tom Eaves) ie a horse we like and has a great German pedigree - he is a half-brother to Deutsches Derby winner Waldpark - but this is the wrong trip for him and we are not sure that he will l ike ground as soft as this.

Sedgefield stages N.H. racing this afternoon and we expect Irish trainer Gordon Elliott and Tony McCoy to team up to land a double with Russian War in the beginners chase at 15.50 and the novice hurdle with Mngr Hangment in the novice hurdle at 17.20. Russian Waar jumped badly last time at Listowel and finally fell, but the ground was very bad that day; he was easily the best of these over hurdles and on this better ground can get back on the winning trail. Hanger Managment has won his last 4 races, including two here, and can continue his winning run at the main expense of Shifting Gold (Kevin Ryan/ Brian Toomey).