Saturday, September 24, 2011

2 Group Ones and Cambridgeshire at Newmarket

Newmarket stages one of its best days of the year today with two Group Ones and the Cambridgeshire, one of the toughest handicaps of the year with 32 runners (after 3 withdrawals). The 9 furlongs race will be run at 16.50 CET and features two German runners, both trained by Mario Hofer: Combat Zone (Terry Hellier) and Ideology (Tom Queally). Combat Zone meets Ideology on much better terms than at Baden-Baden, but is drawn very wide, which may not be ideal. We would like to see the Germans run well, but it is a big ask. The race is of course wide open, with long-time ante-post favourite Dare to Dance (Jeremy Noseda/ Jamie Spencer) a late withdrawal because of the fast ground. The short list includes Red Gulch (Ed Walker/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert), Questioning (John Gosden/ William Buick), Cry Fury (Roger Charlton/ Richard Hughes) and Man o´Action (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), but almost anything can happen here.

The Group One Cheveley Park Stakes for 2yo fillies over 6 furlongs at 15.35 is always won by a top-notcher and the clear favourite here is Best Terms (Richard Hannon/ Hughes), who is unbeaten in 4 starts including the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and the Lowther at York. Irish supplementary entry Lightening Pearl (Ger Lyons/ Johnny Murtagh) looks the main danger. Murtagh also partners an Irish supplementary in the Group One Sun Chariot for fillies and mares over a mile at 16.10. This is the Aga Khan´s Alanza, winner of her last 3 races and a big improver. However she still has a lot to find to beat the favourite here, the French hope Sahpresa (Rodolphe Collet/ Christophe Lemaire), who has won the race for the last 2 years and and is going for an unprecented hat-trick.

The Royal Lodge Stakes (Group Two, 2yo´s, one mile) at 15.05 is another race with a big influence on future events; it is run here for the first time (previously: Ascot) and was won in 2010 by Frankel. His likeliest successor in our view is Wrote (one of 3 runners saddled by Aidan O´Brien and ridden by William Buick). Richard Fahey has runners all over today, but in his newspaper column he nominates the unbeaten Nemushka (Paul Hanagan) in the handicap for 2yo fillies at 17.25 his best bet of the day, so she should be watched carefully.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Farhaan - Daddy Long Legs - Wrote
2. Race: Best Terms - Lightening Pearl - Shumoos
3. Race: Sahpresa - Alanza - Timepiece

4. Race: Questioning - Cry Fury - Man Of Action
5. Race: Pimpernel - Responsive - Nemushka
6. Race: Lutine Bell - Golden Delicious - Woodcote Place
7. Race: Anatolian - Tmaam - Haylaman