Thursday, July 07, 2011

July Festival starts at Newmarket

The July meeting at Newmarket, one of the best summer meetings in the U.K., starts today with a strong card, headed by two Group 2 races. Much will depend on the going, which is currently good to firm; however heavy showers are forecast, and there may well be quite a lot of cut later on. The Princess of Wales´s Stakes over one a half miles at 16.00 CET is the main event, and Redwood (Barry and Michael Hills) looks the logical selection, but he is definitely one of those who do not want any rain. He has not run since finishing second to Rewilding at Meydan in March, and last year won Canada´s Northern Dancer Stakes as well as running-up in the Hong Kong Vase. A repetition of any of that form would see him win here, but there must be a slight doubt in view of the weather and the long break since his last race. However he is extremely consistent and finished runner-up in this a year ago and it is hard to imagine that he will not be placed at least.

Main danger could be Campanologist (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona), who won two Hroip OIns in Gemny last ummer. He has not won since, but has been campaigned in tough races and certainly has chances at this level. The filly Crystal Capella (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and the front-runner Laaheb (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills) look next best, but the two 3yo´s in the field face a tough task in a race where that age group has been very unsuccessful over the years. There have been only 2 3yo winners in the past 18 years and they were both trained by Mark Johnston, who now saddles Dordogne (Silvestre de Sousa), another front-runner who needs fast ground. His best form was when winning the Lingfield Derby trial, but we would be surprised if he is strong enough to hold off the older horses here.