Thursday, June 23, 2011

Listed race at Warwick

Main event in the U.K. today is the listed race for 3yo fillies over 7 furlongs at Warwick at 17.05 CET. Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon teamed up to win this last year with Seta, and they can score again with Khor Sheed, runner-up in a similar race at Nottingham last time. Eucharist (Richard Hannon/ Jimmy Fortune) and Masaya (Clive Brittain/ Chris Catlin) are the main dangers. Best betting race here is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30 which looks wide open. Flying Applause (Steve Bowring/ Jimmy Quinn?) has won his last two races, but he has gone up in the weights and we prefer Steel City Boy (Gary Woodward/ Martin Lane), who was second to him at Nottingham and is now 9 lbs better off and was also a CD winner in May.

Newcastle starts a 3 day meeting today, with the Northumberland Plate on Saturday as its top race of the year. Today´s card is less exciting, but the handicap over the straight mile at 16.20 is an interesting race with several possibilities. Mark Johnston won this last year with Tartan Gunna, and now saddles Tartan Gigha for the same connections, with form jockey Silvestre de Sousa in the saddle; he has been below form on his recent starts, but has now dropped to a very attractive mark and is wearing first-time blinkers. Last year´s runner-up Collateral Damage (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) has also dropped to a nice mark, but our preference is for top-weight Tiger Reigns (Michael Dods/ Freddie Tylicki), who has been running in better company.

The same applies to The Jigsaw Man (Rebecca Curtis/ Jeremiah McGrath), who has to concede lumps of weight all round in the handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 16.45 at Ffos Las; he was less convincing last time over fences but has some smart hurdling form and even at these weights can outclass today´s opponents, 6 of whom are out of the handicap. Our best bet at Ffos Las is the German-bred Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), a half-brother to Lady Marian, who runs in the opening novice hurdle at 15.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kawssaj - Sea Soldier - Logans Legend
2. Race: Hootys Agogo - Albany Rose - Johnny Hancocks
3. Race: Flying Applause - Tyfos - Holiday Snap
4. Race: Khor Sheed - Eucharist - Sweetie Time
5. Race: Above Standard - Perfect Mission - Thunda
6. Race: Moonlight Rhapsody - Little Jazz - Ad Vitam
7. Race: Integria - Paradise Spectre - Bold Cross