Saturday, June 18, 2011

Golden Jubilee on final day of Royal Ascot

The Group One Golden Jubilee Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.45 CET is the main event at Royal Ascot today and is normally one of the world´s best sprint races, but the field this year does not look as strong as usual, and the news that Godolphin´ s Delegator, the ante-post favourite, will not run because of the soft ground has further weakened it. The change in the going poses plenty of problems for punters, as very few runners in any of today´s races have much experience of soft ground, conditions which have become a rarity in southern England these days. The effect of the draw on this ground is another factor to be considered, but we expect the bias in favour of horses drawn middle to high (stands side) to be continued.

The Irish filly Bewitched (Charles O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) acts on soft and she is now likely to start favourite; she is a much-improved filly and winner of 4 of her last 5 races, including this CD. However we are not sure that she is up to Group One class and her trainer has never won at this meeting - though his father Vincent had plenty of winners here.

The logical winner here must be Star Witness (Danny O´Brien/ Steven Arnold), runner-up in the King´s Stand here on Tuesday with some of these behind. He gets the extra furlong all right, we are not so sure about the going. Kingsgate Native (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) was 6th on Tuesday and will also be suited by today´s distance - he won this race in 2008 - and goes on the short list. Definighty (Roger Charlton/ Olivier Peslier) elso goes on the ground and is the pick of the stable´s 3 runners, although he is taking a leap in class here.
It would be nice if Alexander Pereira´s Amico Fritz /Henri-Alex Pantall/ Maxime Guyon), winner of the Goldene Peitsche at Baden-Baden last year, could win this, but he is another one who is probably suited by faster ground.
The one that ticks all the boxes is the 3yo filly Hooray (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), who won the Cheveley Park on soft going last year and for whom this trip looks ideal. She is therefore our selction.