Thursday, June 16, 2011

Gold Cup on Royal Ascots Ladies´ Day

extreme stayers are out of fashion and the Gold Cup (Group One, 2 1/2 miles, 16.45 CET) is no longer the best race of the Royal Ascot meeting, but it is still the highlight of today´s Ladies´ Day card. The Irish have dominated this race in recent years, especially Aidan O´Brien, who sent out Yeats to win this event four times running. We expect another win for the stable today, as Fame and Glory (Jamie Spencer) is undoubtedly the best horse in the field and has 5 lbs and more in hand according to official ratings. Fame and Glory, who is out of a German mare, has already won at the highest level in the Irish Derby, Coronation Cup and Tattersalls Gold Cup, and none of today´s rivals would have any hope of finishing in the frame in such races. However the big problem is that he has never run beyond 1 3/4 miles, and is best form is at shorter. He has been especially prepared for this race and O´Brien certainly knows what is required, so we make him a confident choice despite the doubts about his stamina.
Duncan (John Gosden/ William Buick) is second best on ratings, but his stamina must also be taken on trust. He won the Yorkshire Cup over 1 13/4 miles last time from Blue Bajan (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) and Manighar (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), and the runner up has since won the Henry II Stakes over 2 miles with Holberg (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) third and Aaim to Prosper (Brian Meehan/ Ryan Moore) fourth.
Kasbah Bliss (Francois Doumen/ Thierry Thulliez) is one of two French runners, and looks more dangerous than Brigantin (André Fabre/ Pierre-Charles Boudot), despite Fabre´s fantastic form. Kasbah Bliss was only 6th last year, but has had a better preparation this time. Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning/ George Baker), also out of a German mare, won here over 2 miles arlier this year and must hope that the rain stops. Tastahil (Barry and Richard Hills) was 8th last year and more recently runner-up under top weight in the Chester Cup, form which gives him a definite place chance, but in our view the best outsider is oldtimer Geordieland (Jamie Osborne/ Richard Hughes). He has not run for 21 months, but was placed three times running in this race - behind Yeats every time- and if anywhere near cherry-ripe could be placed again. Another one who has not run for a while is Motrice (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) who as a 4yo filly gets all the allowances and could also run well.
There are question marks over almost all the 15 runners here, but the only problem with Fame and Glory is his ability to get the trip and we hope and believe that he can manage it.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bapak Chinta - Crown Dependency - Everyday Dave
2. Race: Banimpire - Rumh - Dorcas Lane
3. Race: Fame And Glory - Duncan - Holberg
4. Race: Sagramor - Ektibaas - Chain Lightning
5. Race: Tazahum - Alkimos - Marksmanship
6. Race: Census - Purification - Apache