Thursday, April 07, 2011

Aintree Grand National meeting: first day

The Aintree Grand National meeting kicks off today with a truly excellent card, almost as good as Cheltenham. Indeed the three main events can all be seen as a follow-up to the Cheltenham Festival. The going is good to soft today but is expected to dry out to good by Saturday. The opening race, the Grade One Liverpool Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.00 CET, is a repeat of the World Hurdle at the Festival, won by Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) (for the third time) from Grands Crus (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore). Cheltenham form is not always repeated at Aintree, but we cannot imagine Big Bucks, who is going for a hat-trick here as well, will go down to defeat for the first time in over 2 years. He held Grands Crus comfortably enough last time and can do so again. Carlito Brigante /Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell),also a Cheltenham winner, but in handicap company, looks next best, but Sentry Duty (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty, who seems to have been kept for this race, could also be placed.

The Grade One 4yo hurdle half an hour later also has the Cheltenham winner in the line-up, Zarkandar,who should be another winner for the Nicholls/ Walsh team. The half-brother to Zarkava beat several of these opponents in the Triumph and there seems no reason why he should not do so again. as he appears to be a horse with a great future. German-bred Local Hero, only 8th at Cheltenham, should be better suited by this track and could be placed.

The main feature today is the Grade One Totesport Bowl chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 16.05, in which Denman (Nicholls/ Walsh again) returns after his excellent performance as runner-up in the Gold Cup. Logically he should win this, but he appears slightly dodgier than the first two hot favourites. He fell in this race 2 years ago - his only run here- and last year also ran poorly after Cheltenham. Nacarat (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Punchestowns (Henderson/ Geraghty) are possible alternatives.

The Foxhunters at 16.40 should mainly concern Baby Run (Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies), who fell two out at Cheltenham after making the running, and Turko (Mrs. Borrodaile/ Sam Waley-Cohen), but there is also a word out for Irish raider Kilty Storm (RJ McGrath/ D Queally), while Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) can put a poor Cheltenham run behind him by taking the novice chase at 17.50 .

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Big Buck`S - Grands Crus - Carlito Brigante
2. Race: Zarkandar - Grandouet - Third Intention
3. Race: Denman - Punchestowns - Nacarat

4. Race: Baby Run - Turko - Herons Well
5. Race: Leo`S Lucky Star - Tchico Polos - Oiseau De Nuit
6. Race: Wishfull Thinking - Medermit - Royal Charm

7. Race: Get Me Out Of Here - Megastar - Sire Collonges