Tuesday, April 05, 2011

4 meetings today

With 3 meetings on the flat today, the only jumps action comes from Exeter, where there are some large fields. Main event is the marathon chase handicap over 3 3/4 miles at 16.30 CET, where 16 have been declared. For such races, CD experience is always a huge advantage and Vamizi (Mark Bradstock/ Mattie Batchelor) must be on the short list. He always runs well here and was 2nd of 16 over this CD last time out. Others to consider are Theophastrus (Nick Gifford/ Liam Treadwell), who has won his last 2 races, including here, but is now moving up in trip and grade, and Ma Yahab (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who had no chance last time in the Midlands Grand National, but in this lesser company could run much better. Williams and Coleman could also win the preceding handicap hurdle with last-time-out Newbury winner Stow, but we find Vic Dartnall´s two runners equally interesting - top weight Connak (Denis O´Regan), who has been off for 14 months, and bottom-weight Nemet an (Edward Glassonbury); the latter is actually 3lbs out of the handicap, but he ran really well at Kempton last time after a long break, and if he does not bounce must have a decent chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rif - Lundy Sky - Vincitore
2. Race: Stow - Sum Laff - Mauricetheathlete
3. Race: Vamizi - Theophrastus - Choumakeur
4. Race: Hidden Keel - Requin - Rougham
5. Race: Oca De Thaix - What Of It - Louis Pasteur
6. Race: Harry Le Fise Lake - Aland Islands - Special Vintage
7. Race: Cosway Spirit - Fox Appeal - Champagne Rosie


The most interesting flat races, rather surprisingly, come from Pontefract, where the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.10 has attracted a good field. Top-weight Tiger Reigns (Michael Dods/ Freddie Tylicki) is our choice here; he has a lot of weight, but is the class act here and ran respectably in Meydan in February; his trainer won the Lincoln on Saturday with a Meydan runner, and this son of Tiger Hill can follow suit. The long distance handicap at 16.40 is named after popular CD specialist Jamaican Flight, and it can go to another CD specialist Dan Buoy (Richard Guest/ Billy Cray), who runs his best races here and took this event a ywar ago; however he is not so well-handicapped now and we prefer Pegasus Prince (Keith Reveley/ Tom Eaves). This one has never actually won a flat race on grass, but has a good all-weather record and is much improved over hurdles; he seems seriously underrated by the handicapper.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Nolecce - Hits Only Jude - Bajan Flash
2. Race: Halfsin - Lady Rosamunde - Munbaher
3. Race: State Of Mind - Flynn`S Boy - Tom Sawyer
4. Race: Sunny Spells - Blackmore - Dan Buoy
5. Race: Tiger Reigns - Changing The Guard - Itlaaq
6. Race: Florestans Match - Canashito - Flashbang
7. Race: Folk Tune - Hallstatt - Record Breaker


Kempton´s all-weather meeting looks very poor, with only 4 runners in the main event, a 5 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.20. All of them have chances, with top-weight Chevise (Steve Woodman/ Harry Bentley) having won 5 of her last 6 starts; however they were not great races, and we prefer Quality Art (Gary Moore/ Fergus Sweeney), whose CD win at New Year looks solid form. It is not usually a good idea to back maidens in handicaps, but Loyaliste (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), in the money all starts last year, must surely go close in the 10 furlongs event at 15.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mrs Mop - That`S Dangerous - Snowed In
2. Race: Crunched - Loyaliste - Free Tussy
3. Race: Quality Art - Overwhelm - Chevise
4. Race: Daliana - September Draw - Zanoubiatta
5. Race: Leelu - Cape Melody - Al Aqabah
6. Race: Gandalf - Kadouchski - Storm Hawk
7. Race: Avalon Bay - Winniepeg - Greenhead High


To the Irish track at Limerick goes the honour of staging the first evening races of the year under natural light. The 3yo race over 6 1/2 furlongs which opens the card at 17.45 looks quite tricky, but with Dermot Weld and his jockey Pat Smullen in such great form, we hope to see their Flic Flac, runner-up on her last 3 starts, get the better of Dundalk winners Gleadhradh and Maundays Bay.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Gleadhradh - Flic Flac - Obligada
2. Race: Dance Secretary - Asheerah - Vastitas
3. Race: Little Village - Captain James - Orpens Peach
4. Race: Swampfire - Nucals Star - Baitsileir
5. Race: West Coast Dream - Northern Rocked - Cave Artist
6. Race: Concrete And Clay - Lynott - Reach The Stars
7. Race: Captainofthefleet - Humiliation - Hired Hand