Saturday, January 08, 2011

Welsh Grand National at Chepstow

The Welsh Grand National at 14.45 CET at Chepstow is one of the biggest betting races of the N.H. season, and today´s edition with 20 runners seems as wide open as ever. This is one of the few top races never won by trainer Jonjo O´Neill and jockey Tony McCoy, but they can put the record straight now with Synchronised, who won the Midlands Grand National last season on heavy ground (will be the case again) and seems to have had the ideal preparation. He is not particularly well handicapped and is no real value at around 4-1, but he is still our selection. Obviously there are many dangers, including Maktu (Pat and Michael Murphy) and Dance Island (Ben Case/ Charlie Poste), both runners-up at Haydock last time. Royal Rosa (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) was also runner-up last time, at his favourite track Aintree, in a race in which I´moncloudnine (Neil Mulholland/ Dougie Costello) was unluckily knocked out of contention. Watamu Bay (Paul Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon) is lightly-raced and is on our short list, but in our opinion the top weights Silver by Nature (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) and Dream Alliance (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien), first and second in reverse order last year, have little chance off their current ratings.

The other big race at Chepstow is the Grade One Future Champions Finale, a hurdle race for 4yo´s, which sees some of the top juveniles in action. Sam Winner (Nicholls/ McCoy) and Smad Place (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) were most impressive when winning last time and may fight out the finish. Nicholls´ other runner Dolatulo (Harry Skelton) looks held, but Marsh Warbler (Brian Ellison/ Fearghal Davis) could be a big danger.

McCoy could win two more races for owner JP McManus, with Rebecca Curtis´ debutant The Merry Giant in the maiden hurdle at 15.50 and Brendan Powell´s Money Order, who can repeat last year´s victory in the handicap hurdle at 16.25, while we think that Chief Yeoman (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) could repay each-way support in the handicap chase at 15.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Voramar Two - Sunsalve - Silver Kate
2. Race: Sam Winner - Smad Place - Marsh Warbler
3. Race: Synchronised - Maktu - Dance Island
4. Race: Rivaliste - Fine Parchment - Nikola
5. Race: The Merry Giant - Merehead - Oscar Papa
6. Race: Vagrant Emperor - Stow - Bertie May
7. Race: Saint Luke - Beat All Out - Ledbury Star