Saturday, January 22, 2011

Victor Chandler Chase heads star Ascot card

The Grade One Victor Chandler Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 15.25 CET at Ascot is the big race of the day and features the hot favourite for Cheltenham´s Champion Chase in Master Minded (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy). The French-bred 8yo is clearly the top 2 mile chaser in training in the U.K. and it will be a shock if he is beaten. He met no fewer than 5 of these opponents in the Tingle Creek Chase at Cheltenham before Christmas - Petit Robin (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), 2nd, Somersby (Henrietta Knight/ Hadden Frost), 3rd, I´m So Lucky (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), 4th, Gauvain (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob), 5th, and Kalahari King (Ferdy Murphy), 7th, and won with such authority that it is almost impossible to imagine any of them turning the tables today. Master Minded fell on his first start for Nicholls, bit since then he has won of his 13 starts and there were legitimate excuses for his 3 defeats. Obviously some people will point to the surprising defeat last week of the same owner´s Kauto Star at Kempton, but that is surely irrelevant. We don´t like betting at odds-on, but this favourite looks impregnable. Petit Robin, who has finished well behind him on all 3 occasions they have met, can be placed again, and we also hope that German-bred Gauvain runs a bit better this time, while Nicholls´ second strong Tchico Polos (Ian Popham), who is moving up on grade, could also finish in the money.

As so often, it seems that Nicholls and Henderson will dominate proceedings throughout and it is in fact entirely possible that between them they will go through the card. The Grade Two mares hurdle at 14.50 should go to Henderson´s Carole´s Legacy (Geraghty), a thoroughly reliable mare who has won 9 of her 15 starts and finished runner-up 4 times. She has won 3 times over the trip, while her two main opponents, the unbeaten L´Accordioniste (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) and Sparky May (Paul Rodford/ Kieren Burke) are unproven at this distance.

Henderson´s Grandouet (Geraghty) has an obvious chance in the 4yo hurdle at 14.15, but carries a double penalty and may have trouble in giving the weight to Nicholls´ newcomer Plenty Pocket (Popham), another expensive French purchase by Clive Smith. Another ex-French runner who can score on his British but for Nicholls is Sire Collonges (Daryl Jacob) in the limited handicap hurdle at 5.55, but this looks a really tricky race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Osric - Frontier Dancer - Rougham
2. Race: Grandouet - Plenty Pocket - Two Kisses
3. Race: Carole`S Legacy - L`Accordioniste - Sparky May
4. Race: Master Minded - Petit Robin - Somersby
5. Race: Soldatino - Sire Collonges - Walkon

6. Race: Breedsbreeze - Mahogany Blaze - I`M A Legend
7. Race: Poungach - Master Fiddle - No Secrets