Monday, January 17, 2011

Small fields today

Today´s 3 meetings - over jumps at Plumpton and Fakenham and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, have some very small fields and the quality is mainly very poor, so that betting opportunities are limited. In addition the ground will be very heavy at Plumpton, where the course has passed an early morning inspection, and that is another reason for punters to be cautious.

There are 4 runners in the novice chase at 14.40 CET at Plumpton, two of whom met in a Grade Two race at Cheltenham last time, where Have you seen Me (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Tom Molloy) finished 4th of 13, while Ranjobaie (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) fell early on; the latter now gets weight and, if he stays on his feet, can win this.The handicap chase half an hour later looks quite tricky, but we expect top-weight Massini Sunset (Nick Mitchell/ Sam Clements), who won a similar race at Lingfield on heavy ground last time, to win again from course specialist Sumdancer Michael Madgwick/ Mark Goldstein) and Manmoon (Nigel Hawke/ Matt Griffiths),a CD winner last time out. German-bred Guarino (Gary and Jamie Moore) was listed class on the flat and makes his debut over hurdles at 14.10. However he has not run for ages, and as a son of Acatenango may not like the going, so is no certainty.

Tony McCoy looks the jockey to follow at Fakenham; he has winning chances on Nicky Henderson´s Silicium in the maiden hurdle at 14.55 (where Barney Curley´s ex-German Agapanthus also runs) on Lady HIght in the novice hurdle at 16.00, and can take the novice chase at 15.30 on David Pipe´s smart flat and hurdling handicapper Mamlook (gets 12 lbs from his most serious opponent Tullamore Dew) and also the handicap hurdle over 3 miles at 17.00 on Tim Vaughan´ s Loco Grande, who won a poor race last time at Folkestone but meets equally feeble opposition today.

At Wolverhampton the most interesting event is the 3yo maiden at 16.50. Art History (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) shaped like a certain future winner when third on his debut, while Rojo Boy (David Elsworth/ Robert Winston), upped in trip, is also respected, but the one to beat is surely Maher (David Simcock/ Jamie Spencer), who was 6th of 12 in a much better race at Newmarket when last seen in August; that race was won by champion 2yo Frankel!
Simcock and Spencer follow up with Riot Police an hour later in the mile handicap for 3yo´s.