Sunday, January 16, 2011

Ffos Las, Fairyhouse and Southwell

after yesterday´s excellent Kempton card, today´s racing is very much an anti-climax. Even the Irish racing at Fairyhouse is rather low-key, with only 4 entered in the main feature, the Grade Two Normans Grove Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 15.15 CET. This looks at the mercy of Golden Silver (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend), who should certainly be capable of giving weight to these opponents. He has won 5 of his last 9 races, on all the other occasions finishing behind Big Zeb, probably the best 2-mile-chaser in training. The listed mares novice hurdle over 2 1/4 miles at 14.10 looks trickier. Our Girl Salley (Prunella Dobbs/ Barry Geraghty) has won her last 4 races, last time a similr event at Leopardstown, when Lonesome Dove (Charlie Swan/ David Casey) and Araucaria (Jon Kiely/ Andrew McNamara ) were well behind; they could make more of a race of it today, but more dangerous is the improved Wood Lily (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), moving up in grade after an easy maiden win here last time.
The handicap hurdle at 15.40 is the best betting race at Ffos Las and almost all the 15 runners can be given a chance. Prince du Seuil (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and lightly-raced Real Treasure (Kim Bailey/ Sean Quinlan) were both easy winners last time but have been harshly reassessed. Shinrock Hill (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) also won last time, while Sir Kezbaah (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield) was runner-up to the smart Salden Licht after a long break. An interesting outsider could be Numide (Rod Millman/ Johnny Farrelly), who is on a long losing run, but has been dropped to a nice weight. The handicap chase half an hour later is also tricky, although the field is much smaller. Very few of the runners bring decent recent form, so that one can perhaps take a chance with Tamadot (Hobbs/ Johnson), who has been off for 2 years. The alternative could be Pak Jack, who fell last time and hardly ever wins but has been running in much better company.
Our main fancy at Southwell is Powerful Presence (David O´Meara/ Joe Fanning) who can complete a quick course hat-trick in the opening mile handicap at 13.50. Strictly speaking, he should not beat Zarius (Chris Wall/ Nanna Hansen) who beat him fair and square this CD at New Year with this jockey in the saddle and is now better off at the weights. However Powerful Presence was so impressive in his last 2 wins that we expect him to go in again, and trainer and jockey can complete a double with topweight Trans Sonic in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.35.

Betting forecast Southwell:
1. Race: Powerful Presence - Zarius - Intyre Trail
2. Race: Oh So Kool - Prince Titus - Close To The Edge
3. Race: Princess Dayna - Silk Bounty - Honkers Bonkers
4. Race: The Dukes Arch - Tivers Song - Carnac
5. Race: Kheley - Cheveyo - Pinball
6. Race: Follow The Flag - Trans Sonic - Conry
7. Race: Rhal - Local Diktator - Granny Anne