Saturday, December 04, 2010

four all-weather tracks today

the best race of the day is the 7 furlongs handicap at Kempton at 16.40 CET with 12 runners, some of them with listed race experience. Jane Chapple-Hyam´s Arteus (Robert Wiston) could start favourite in this very open event; he has the plum draw and last time beat several of these in a similar race at Lingfield. However we would not be surprised to see Seek the Fair Land (James Boyle/ Matthew Davies) or Autumn Blades (Alan Bailey/ Dcvid Probert), 2nd and 3rd then, turn the tables at the revised weights today. Autumn Blades has since been well beaten in a much better race, but despite his strenuous programme- it is his 4th start in 2 weeks-, he is our selection. Probert can also win the preceding race, a mile handicap, on Andrew Balding´s Suffolk Punch, who has been running in better company and seems nicely handicapped. Our best bet here is Cast of Stars (Ralph Beckett/ George Baker) in the maiden race over 11 furlongs at 17.10; on form he seems to have only the Queen´s Fasci nation (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) to beat.
There is also a decent handicap at Southwell, this time over 6 furlongs at 15.55. Ingleby Arch (David Barron/ Phillip Makin) and Imprimis Tagula (Alan Bailey/ Natasha Eaton) are absolute CD specialists, who can never be left out of calculations here, but our choice is Love Delta (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley); he has a big weight for a 3yo but put up some useful performances here earlier in the year and seems to be coming back to form. Mark Johnston can also take the 11 furlongs handicap half an hour later with Realisation. He has booked the claimer CD Byrne and as a result he meets likely favourite Cosimo de Medici (Hughie Morrison( Steve Drowne), who finished in front of him last time, on much better terms today. There could be some decent 2yo´s engaged in the mile maiden at 13.50, but this is a race to watch rather than to bet on.
The card at Wolverhampton this evening is less exciting. The most interesting runner could be Irish-trained Brabazon (Emmet Butterly/ Julie Burke) in the 2 mile handicap at 20.50. He landed a huge gamble last week at Lingfield, and carries only a 6 lbs penalty for that 10 lengths success; if he doesn´t "bounce" (it was his first start for over 2 years) he should win again.
In Ireland the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.35 at Dundalk looks very open; our two against the field are both trained by jumps trainers- Dazzle Dancer(Willie Mullins/ ED Linehan) and Keelaghan (Tony Martin/ Kevin Manning). Otherwise it could pay to follow champion jockey Pat Smullen, who has several promising rides, notably Tony Martin´s Munnings at 16.05 and Jeremy Nash´s Star of Aragon at 17.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Palais Glide - Swift Breeze - Avon Supreme
2. Race: Treacle Tart - Green Wadi - Pertuis
3. Race: Fantasy Gladiator - Having A Ball - Blakey`S Boy
4. Race: Mia`S Boy - Arteus - Seek The Fair Land
5. Race: Cast Of Stars - Fascination - Wade Farm Billy
6. Race: Empress Charlotte - Amazon Twilight - Magical Star