Saturday, November 20, 2010

Imperial Commander at Haydock!

An excellent day´s racing is in store, with the highlights at Haydock and Ascot. Most valuable race of the day is the Betfair Chase over 3 miles at 16.25 CET at Haydock. This event has been won 3 times by champion Kauto Star, but he only won by a whisker last year from Imperial Commander, who went on to win the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. If he can reproduce those pieces of form, Imperial Commander (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) would be a near-certainty this afternoon. However he has run the occasional bad race, notably at the Aintree Grand National meeting, where he was pulled up in the race won by What a Friend (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Thomas), who looks the main danger now. Obviously Nicholls, whose stable is in great form, would like to win this again -as would Sir Alex Ferguson, part-owner of What a Friend, but stable vibes are very positive about Imperial Commander, and we expect him to come out on top. Nacarat (Tom George/ Paul Moloney), recent winner of the Charlie Hal l Chase, and Planet of Sound (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who has not run since winning at the Punchestown Festival in April, are both smart but are probably only going to fight it out for the minor places.

Hobbs and Johnson can in any case pick up the opening novice hurdle at 13.40 with Dunraven Storm, recent runner-up to supersmart Cue Card, while we expect Carlito Brigante (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire) to reverse Punchestown form with Barizan (Evan Williams/ Moloney) and win the hurdle race at 14.50; Clerks Choice (Michael Banks/ Tom Molloy) has top rating here after winning his last 4 races but we are not yet convinced that he is up to this grade. The big betting race here is the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 15.50 with 18 runners. Grands Crus (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) won with a great deal in hand last Sunday at Cheltenham and should be able to defy a 6 lbs penalty. German-bred Backbord (Lucy Wadham/ Dougie Costello) and James de Vassy (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob) are the main dangers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dunraven Storm - Toubab - Drill Sergeant
2. Race: Tara Royal - Stagecoach Pearl - Gringo
3. Race: Clerk`S Choice - Carlito Brigante - Barizan
4. Race: Wogan - King Fontaine - Etxalar
5. Race: Grands Crus - James De Vassy - Peveril
6. Race: Imperial Commander - What A Friend - Nacarat
7. Race: Herdsman - Charminster - Flaygray