Monday, November 08, 2010

Carlisle (N.H.), Southwell (N.H.) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

Today´s 3 British meetings are not punter-friendly - with very low-level sport, some small fields and extremes of going at Carlisle (heavy) and Southwell (firm). Easily the best race is the Graduation Chase over an extended 3 miles at Carlisle at 16.00 CET. Only 5 runners, but all of them useful, including Big Fella Thanks owned by big bettor Harry Findlay. He was trained by Paul Nicholls when 4th in the Grand National in April, but following the changes in Harry´s stable, is now with Ferdy Murphy and will be ridden by Graham Lee. Hey Big Spender (Colin and Joe Tizzard) is an obvious danger, but the other 3 runners are also in with a chance, including Nicholls´own Massasoit (Nick Scholfield), who receives weight from all the others. Ferdy Murphy has not really hit top form yet, but his Le Roi Rouge (Lee), who loves this ground, must have a chance in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 15.25, and his performance could give some indication of Big Fella Thanks´ prospects.

Trainer Charlie Mann and jockey Noel Fehily combined to win a handicap chase at Ffos Las yesterday with German-bred Moon over Miami, and we hope that they can repeat the trick today at Southwell, where Cortinas bids to repeat his 2009 victory at 13.40. The other one we like here is Kasdabali (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell), runner-up to the useful Dare Me at Exeter last time, who could one better in the novice hurdle at 16.20.

The card at Wolverhamptn is uninspiring. Gentleman is Back (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) won a maiden over this CD in September and the form of that race is working out well; he can take the 2yo handicap at 16.10 under top weight. The 8 1/2 furlongs handicap at 17.45 is probably the best race here. Norwegian Dancer (Ed McMahon/ Graham Gibbons) finished in front of Lastkingofscotland (Conor Dore/ Hayley Turner) last time and meets him on better terms today, but we prefer Veroon (James Given/ Tom Eaves), while Spectait (Jonjo O´Neill/ George Baker) could be dangerous despite top weight and poor form; he was a CD specialist in younger days and is very nicely handicapped now