Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Southwell (a.w.), Leicester, Warwick and Tipperary (N.H.)

It is unusual for Frankie Dettori to ride at Southwell´ s all-weather track, but that is the case today and he can win the first two races on Abtasaamah at 15.20 CET and Sahara Kingdom half an hour later, both trained for Godolphin by Saeed bin Suroor. Neither is likely to be much of a betting proposition however and both will start at very short prices. A better betting race is the 6 furlongs conditions race at 17.50.

Captain Dunne (Tim Easterby/ Robert Winston) should win this; he is top-rated and his latest form to Tangerine Trees has been boosted since., However Masta Plasta (David and Adrian Nicholls), although theoretically held on form, might give him a tough time, as he is listed class at his best. Oldtimer Pawan (Anne Stokell) has finished well behind these two, but runs his best races over this CD and might possibly run into a place at a big price.

The ground is expected to be very heavy at Leicester and punters should be cautious. The hottest favourite here is Picture Editor (Hency Cecil/ Tom Queally), who has only 2 opponents in the 2yo conditions race over 10 furlongs at 16.10, while trainer John Dunlop could land a double with Harlestone Times (Ted Durcan) in the 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 and Hajjaan (Richard Hills) in the 7 furlongs event for 3yo maidens at 17.10, but none of this trio has ever run on ground as heavy as it will be this afternoon.

The Catterick card is pretty poor.The most interesting event here could be the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 18.30. The rapidly improving Tobernea (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley) has won his last 3 races, including yesterday at Warwick, If he turns out again under a penalty, he should go close, but we prefer Danceintothelight (Micky Hammond/ Kelly Harrison), an easy winner here over 2 furlongs further last time, as well as Maneki Neko (Edwin Tuer/ Phillip Makin), who always goes well here.

There is jumps racing in Ireland at Tipperary with maximum fields in most races. The season is slowly getting into swing and there are some potentially promising sorts entered in the beginners chase at 17.55. This is not really a race to bet on, but our 3 against the field are Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/ MP Walsh), Warne (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) and Lucky William (Tom and BJ Cooper).