Northumberland Plate at Newcastle

the Northumberland Plate,aka the Pitman´s Derby, is not only the biggest race of the year at Newcastle but also one of the hottest handicaps of the entire season. Today´s edition at 16.05 CET is as open as ever, with 20 runners. Tim Easterby has two well-backed entries, with Deauville Flyer (Robert Winston) the likely favourite. He has won his last two races very easily, both at York, but to us he represents little value at 4-1 or less, as today´s race is much tougher, the ground may be firmer than he likes and his jockey will struggle to make the weight. His stable companion Crackentorp (David Allan) has just as good a chance, although he does not win very often. The two mile trip seems too far for Drunken Sailor (Luca Cumani/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert), but holds no fears for Mamlook (David Pipe/Seb Sanders), who won the Chester Cup with Halla San (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) third and Bernie the Bolt (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) well back; all 3 could be involved today. Overturn (Donald McCain/ Eddie Ahern) has been well backed on the strength of his excellent form over hurdles, but his outside draw is a big disadvantage. Aaim to Prosper (Brian Meehan/ James Sullivan) ran a great race at Ascot and has a nice weight, but this race comes very soon after that effort. We shall take a chance and hope that Bernie the Bolt shows his Chester running to be all wrong.
The Newcastle card starts off with two very tricky 6 furlong races. The Group Three Chipchase Stakes at 15.00 should in theory go to Himalya (Jremy Noseda/ Ahern), who ran an excellent race last week at Royal Ascot. Knot in Wood (Fahey/ Hanagan), who won this race last year, also ran well at the royal meeting, and holds Barney McGrew on that form, but is himself held by Sir Gerry (John Best/ Robert Winston) on Haydock form, although he had no chance later in the Golden Jubilee. We shall defy logic and hope that Knot in Wood´s liking for the track will prove decisive.
The handicap at 15.30 is another puzzle. Damika (Richard Whitaker/ Daragh O´Donohoe) has won his last two races, including this CD and must be on the short list. Johnny Mudball (Tom Dascombe/ Sanders) was runner-up in a similar event at Doncaster, with Poet´s Place fifth; however the latter was having only the third race of his life, and we expect this unexposd type to reverse the placings here. Kerry´s Requiem (Mick Channon/ Chris Catlin) won nicely at Goodwood and must also be considered.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Himalya - Knot In Wood - Mister Hughie
2. Race: Jonny Mudball - Damika - Kerrys Requiem
3. Race: Deauville Flyer - Mamlook - Chiberta King
4. Race: Hajoum - Camerooney - Game Lad
5. Race: Dortmund - Arabian Star - King Of Aquitaine
6. Race: Tepmokea - Kingsdale Orion - Pendragon
7. Race: Be Invincible - Law To Himself - Antoniola