Irish Derby at the Curragh

the racing at the three British tracks this aftenoon is not inspiring (athough the 18 runner Summer National at 15.40 CET at Uttoxeter is quite an interesting affair), so we shall concentrate on the big Irish meeting at the Curragh, featuring the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at 18,10. This is quite late for such an important race, but at least it gives football fans time to watch England win first. With added money of 1.25 million euros, it is also one of the richest races of the year in Europe, and in many previous seasons the form here has worked out better than the form at Epsom or Chantilly.
7 of the 11 runners are trained in Ireland, but only two trainers are responsible- Aidan O´Brien with 5 runners and Jim Bolger with two. Bolger´s pair have little chance on the form book, but O´Brien has excellent chances of winning this race for the 5th year running (and 8th time in all). Stable jockey Jihnny Murtagh has chosen to partner Cape Blanco, winner of the Dante from subsequent Derby winner Workforce, but disappointing at Chantilly next time, and he will therefore start favourite. However he himself admits it was a difficult decision, and history shows that these big races are often won by the second or even third string. This could well be the case today, and Jan Vermeer (Seamus Heffernan) and Midas Touch (Colm O´Donoghue) have almost as big a chance. They finished 4th and 5th in the Epsom classic, where the former started favourite and lost two shoes. However Jan Vermeer has shown his best form with cut in the ground, and despite constant watering, the ground wil l ride very fast today after a month of dry and warm weather. Of O´Brien´s other runners, At First Sight, ridden by son Joseph, will probably make the running, and Bright Horizon (Sean Levey) is also presumably in as a pacemaker.
Of the British entries, Monterosso (Mark Johnson/ Frankie Dettori) is easily the most interesting. He has had a most unorthodox preparation, hvaing started out the year with 3 races on polytrack in the winter at Lingfield. However he has shown continual dramatic improvement, winning 5 races so far this year, including the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot only 9 days ago, following which he was supplemented for this race. But he must improve further to win here , and although that possibility cannot be dismissed, we feel that this could be a bridge too far.
Godolphin´s Chabal was well behind Cape Blanco in the Dante and is another who probably wants softer going, while Coordinated Cut looks well held on Epsom form. O´Brien´s season has so far not gone to plan - although his horses have been running much better in the last 2 weeks- but we expect him to win here, and at the likely odds make Midas Touch (each-way) our selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Petronius Maximus - Sydney Harbour - A Word Apart
2. Race: Benbaun - Arctic - Spin Cycle
3. Race: Charminamix - Maundy Money - Lord Kenmare
4. Race: Samuel Morse - Clondinnery - Glor Na Mara
5. Race: Hawkeyethenoo - Air Chief Marshal - Flipando
6. Race: Keredari - Gold Bubbles - Emperor Claudius
7. Race: Cape Blanco - Monterosso - Jan Vermeer
8. Race: Behtarini - Ceannline - Celtic Dane