York May meeting: first day

York consistently stages some of the best racing in the British Isles, and the May meeting, which starts today, is one of their best fixtures. Today´s main features are the Group Two Duke of York Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.10 CET and the Group Three Musidora Stakes, a top trial for the Oaks, at 15.40. The latter event, with 8 runners, looks very tricky, as the two favourites Aviate (Henry Cecil/ Eddie Ahern) and Cabaret (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) are by no means bombproof. The O´Brien 3yo´s are still not totally convincing, while Aviate, who is unbeaten so far, steps up in trip and on pedigree is not certain to get this distance.

Alternatives are Bikini Babe (Mark Johnston/Joe Fanning), well beaten by colts last time, but who ran well in Dubai, Red Fantasy (Barry and Michael Hills) and especially the other Irish raider, Jim Bolger´s Gold Bubbles (Kevin Manning). Although her form does not read well on paper, we expect this move up in trip on better ground will suit her.

The Duke of York is possibly the better race, with several aspirants to the top sprint events later in the season, notably ex-Australian star Starspangledbanner (O´Brien/ Murtagh). He was transferred to the O´Brien stable in the spring after winning two Group Ones at home, and we know from experience just how strong the Aussies are over this distance. However we are not sure that he can concede weight to the British hopes, who are headed by two runners in the colours of Khaled Abdullah - Main Aim (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Showcasing (John Gosden/ William Buick). The latter is in the second colours and is the only 3yo in the field; he won the Gimcrack over this CD last August and is a definite contender for the title of champion sprinter this year, and we make him our selection.

The handicaps are as difficult as always, but we expect Forte dei Marmi (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) to defy a 12 lbs rise in the weights and win the opening 10 furlongs race, while Veloso (Jeremy Glover/ Freddie Tylicki) is an interesting runner over 1 1/2 miles at 16.45. This lightly-raced 8yo has been first or second on 10 of his 11 career starts so far, and although these have been almost all on the all-weather, he still seems well handicapped here. The 3yo race over 7 furlongs at 15.40 is a very hot race and almost impossible to call; the winner will probably have to be group class to score here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Forte Dei Marmi - Imposing - Tartan Gunna
2. Race: Summerinthecity - Rainfall - Business As Usual
3. Race: Aviate - Cabaret - Eleanora Duse
4. Race: Main Aim - Showcasing - Starspangledbanner
5. Race: Itlaaq - The Fonz - Deauville Flyer
6. Race: Bahceli - Majestic Myles - Cocktail Charlie
7. Race: Official Style - Rigidity - Contract Caterer