Scottish Grand National at Ayr

Ayr stages its biggest jumps fixture of the year today, with a high class card headed by the Scottish Grand National, over an extended 4 miles at 16.20 CET. While the Aintree version last week had 40 runners, the Scottish one has "only" 30 and looks equally difficult. The ability to stay the distance will be decisive, but many of the runners have never attempted this trip, so a lot of guesswork is involved. We do not expect the 3 horses who have to carry over 11 stone to figure, even though the going will be perfect, while these tough handicaps usually require lots of experience, so that the strongly-fancied 7yo´s Poker de Sivola (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) and Meanus Dandy (Paul Nicholls/ Paddy Brennan) are also discarded despite the excellent records of their trainers.
Two horses certain to stay the distance are Gone to Lunch (Jeremy Scott/ Barry Geraghty), second in this last year, and Himalayan Trail (Sue Smith/ Tom Messenger), winner of the 2009 Midlands Grand National; However jockey bookings suggest that Aurora´s Encore (Tjade Collier) is Sue Smith´s main candidate, while Gone to Lunch has been below form this season, but has now dropped 8 lbs in the ratings. Thtrical Moment reprsnts ast wk´s winning team of Jonjo O´Neill and Tony McCoy and cannot be left out, while the lightly-weighted Scots Dragoon (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) and Dom d´Orgeval (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob) are others for the short list.
Henderson and Bass so have prospects in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, despite the name a handicap at 15.45, with German-bred First Point; the stable´s other runner Eradicate (Geraghty) also has a chance, while Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), who has won his last two races, both over this CD, very easily, is moving up in grade but certainly in with a chance.
The Champion Novices Chase at 15.15 is another tricky event, even though there are only 5 runners. The penalised French Opera (Henderson/ Geraghty) and Tschico Polos (Nicholls/ McCoy) will have their supporters, but at these weights we prefer Kangaroo Court (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle). The N.H. season officially ends next Saturday, and Tony McCoy has made it clear that he would like to reach 200 winners for the season again. He is currently on 194, and apart from those already mentioned, has good chances with Advisor in the 4yo hurdle at 14.45, Red Harbour at 16.55 and Takeroc at 17.30, all for Paul Nicholls. He needs some winners today, as he will be in Ireland for most of next week for the big Punchestown meeting.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Advisor - Hunterview - Ascendant
2. Race: French Opera - Tchico Polos - Kangaroo Court
3. Race: Arcalis - Tito Bustillo - Overturn
4. Race: Poker De Sivola - Meanus Dandy - Gone To Lunch
5. Race: Red Harbour - Riptide - Federstar
6. Race: Chaninbar - I`M Delilah - Takeroc
7. Race: Middleton Dene - Mont Present - Eyre Square
8. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Habbie Simpson - Yes Tom