Punchestown Festival, fifth and final day

The Punchestown festival has so far been a benefit show for trainer Willie Mullins, and all his runners today must therefore be treated with respect. In the main event, a Grade One hurdle race for 4yo´s at 17.25 CET, he is represented by the lightly-raced Sweet my Lord (Paul Townend), an easy winner on heavy ground at Cork last time, but he takes a huge leap in class here and needs to improve significantly to play a leading role. The same goes for the filly Fingal Rock (Peter Casey/ Barry Geraghty), an easy winner on the heavy last time. Despite heavy watering (much criticised in some quarters) the ground will be good today, possibly even on the fast side of good. The 3 logical contenders are are front-runner Barizan (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), Carlito Brigante (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell) and Orsippus (Michael Smith/ Davy Condon). The last-named came with a late run to catch Barizan at Aintree, while the latter was also runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham with Carlito fourth. There is little between them. While Barizan seems certain to be placed again, his aggressive style of racing leaves him vulnerable to a strong finisher; this could even be Fingal Rock, whose pedigree suggsts that she will be well suited by today´s going.

Mullins and Townend probably have better propspeczs with the ex-French Tarla in the Grade Three mares hurdle at 16.10, although La Sarrazine (James Fanshawe/ Paul Carberry) looks a big danger here, and by Themoonandsixpence in the novice chase at 16.45, although this one is racing over a much shorter trip than usual.

There are huge fields in the two valuable handicaps on the card. In the hurdle race at 18.35 Mullins saddles no fewer than 6 runners, with Townend partnering C´est Ca, presumably the pick of them; we also like here the lightly-aaced German-bred Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ David Casey). In the chase at 18.00 Mullins relies on Ballytrim (Townend), but this looks the most difficult race of the day with 25 runners. Glenfinn Captain (Tom Taaffe/ Mar Walsh) has been mainly disappointing this season, has dropped to a nice weight as a result, and could run well at a big price. The meeting ends with a charity flat race over 15 furlongs. This is definitely not rac to bet on; Dessie Hughes has put up his daughter on 13yo ex-Champion Hurdler Hardy Eustace, but he has not run on the flat for ages and has theoretically ben retired. He is thr bst hors in the large field on his old form, but we prefer Dermot Weld´s Force of Habit, a recent winner at Dundalk.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Freneys Well - Drombeag - Merry Cowboy
2. Race: Tarla - La Sarrazine - Serpentaria
3. Race: Themoonandsixpence - You`Re The Top - Agglestone Rock
4. Race: Carlito Brigante - Barizan - Orsippus
5. Race: Lochan Lacha - Offshore Account - Golden Kite
6. Race: Radium - Beroni - C`Est Ca
7. Race: Very Vite - Howth - Nicene Creed
8. Race: Hardy Eustace - Force Of Habit - Ten Fires