Thursday, April 15, 2010

Newmarket Craven meeting - second day

There were plenty of classic clues at Newmarket yesterday, and there should be more today, when the main event is the Group Three Craven Stakes for 3yo´s over a mile at 16.35 CET. As always at this time of year. fitness will be important, and Edinburgh Knight (Paul d´Arcy/ Tony Culhane), who has won both his starts this year - both on the all-weather- has a clear advantage here, as he is the only one of the 10 runners to have run in 2010.

Obviously he is meeting far better opponents today, so he needs further improvement, but that is by no means impossible. On 2yo form Elusive Pimpernel (John Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) is clearly the one to beat after his excellent second place in the Racing Post Trophy, when Dancing David (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer) and Morana (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Alan Munro) were 4th and 5th. In theory he should confirm that form, although Dunlop has not yet had a winner this season. One trainer already in good form is Richard Hannon, so his Lucky General (Richard Hughes) must also be considered.

The other group race on the card is the Earl of Sefton Stakes for older horses over 9 furlongs at 17.10. If Elusive Pimpernel runs well, that would be a clear pointer to the chances of his half-brother Palavicini (Dunlop/ Jimmy Fortune). Likely favourite here is Tranquil Tiger (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who has won his last 3 races, all at Lingfield, and must now transfer that form to turf. Steele Tango (Roger Teal/ Liam Keniry) was second in this last year and could run into the money again, while the Queen´s consistent Kingdom of Fife (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) also has a chance. The interesting one here is Sans Frontieres (Jeremy Noseda/ Frankie Dettori) who has not run since finishing 3rd in last year´s Dante Stakes. The distance seems a bit on the short side, but if he is back to his best, he could win this.

The listed bernant Staks over 6 furlongs at 16.00 looks quite tricky. quiano (Barry nd Michael Hills) wpon th King´s Stand in 2008, but was well below form all last year; at his best, he would win, but we prefer Doncaster Rover (David Brown/ Freddie Tylicki), who likes fast ground, and Mullionmileanhour (John Best/ Steve Drowne), who missed all last year, but is now back in good form. Another one who will appreciate the going is German-bred Diam Queen (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), a daughter of Lando, who runs in the 3yo handicap at 18.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Golden Shine - Penny`S Pearl - Yarooh
2. Race: Squall - Chiefdom Prince - Seyaaq
3. Race: Equiano - Golden Stream - Mullionmileanhour
4. Race: Elusive Pimpernel - Markazzi - Dancing David
5. Race: Tranquil Tiger - Sans Frontieres - Kingdom Of Fife
6. Race: Faithful One - Spicewood - Eldalil
7. Race: Tamaathul - Official Style - Diam Queen