Saturday, March 27, 2010

Dubai World Cup - the world´s richest race ever

Today´s Dubai World Cup over 10 furlongs on tapeta at 18.45 CET is the richest race ever run, with prize-money of 10 million US dollars. Obviously the race is very competitive with a full field of 14 runners, although no superstar is in the line up this time, but that makes it all the more open. This race is usually won either by a Godolphin runner or an American, but there are grounds for thinking that an European can triumph this time. Vision d´Etat (Eric Libaud/ Olivier Peslier) has survived another last-minute scare, just as he did before the winning the Hong Kong Cup. He is very high class and racing over his optimum trip. Gloria de Campeao (Pascal Bary/ T. Pereire), runner-up here last year, is another French challenger, while the British hopes are pinned to Twice Over (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), Crowded House (Brian Meehan/ John Velasquez) and Gitano Hernando (Marco Botti/ Kieren Fallon). Godolphin´s hope of Mastery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), winner of the S t. Leger and probably not speedy enough for this, while the best America is clearly Gio Ponti (Christophe Clement/ RA Dominguez), who finished in front of Twice Over in the Breeders Cup. Almost anything can happen here, we will take a chance on the Japanese mare Red Desire (M Matsunaga/ Christophe Soumillon), who ran a convincing trial.

Quijano (Peter Schiergen /Andrasch Starke) is the only German runner at the meeting. Now an 8yo, he runs for the fourth time in the Sheema Classic on turf at 17.35. To be brutally frank, it will be a miracle if he finishes in the first 4. This is a really tough race, arguably better than the World Cup itself. The pace will be very strong, with American front-runner Presious Pattern (Mary Hartmann/ Elvis Trujillo) in the line up, and on his favoured fast surface he will take some passing. Eastern Anthem (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajteni) just beat Spanish Moon (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) in this last year, when Youmzain (Mick Channon/ Kieren Fallon) was also close up. Youmzain is arguably the form choice having finished runner-up 3 times running in the Arc, and holds Cavalaryman and Dar Re Mi on that form. Jukebox Jury (Mark Johnston/ Foyston Ffrech) just held Eastern nthem last year in Cologne, but this is mich toughr. Once again a Japanese contestant looks dangerous - B uena Vista (H. Matsuka/ Olivier Peslier), wile Yiumzain, who rarely wins, looks a good place bet.

The other races are equally tough. Our best bet of the meeting is the Singapore-trained Rocket Man (PB Shaw/ Robbie Fradd) in the Golden Shaheen over 6 furlongs on tapeta at 16.15. He is arguably the second-best sprinter in the world (behind Sacred Kingdom, the only horse to have beaten him lately) and can hold Breeders Cup fourth Gayego (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori) and American hope Kinsale King (Carl O´Callaghan/ Garrett Gomez).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jaafer - No Risk Al Maury - Jalab Al Khalidiah
2. Race: Sirocco Breeze - War Artist - All Silent
3. Race: Desert Party - Cat Junior - Kalahari Gold
4. Race: Musir - Mendip - Enak
5. Race: Rocket Man - Gayego - One World
6. Race: Presvis - Imbongi - Good Ba Ba
7. Race: Cavalryman - Spanish Moon - Dar Re Mi
8. Race: Red Desire - Gloria de Campeao - Mr Brock