British flat season opens at Doncaster

The flat season proper starts today in the U.K. with the traditional Doncaster meeting, where the main feature is the valuable Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile at 16.10 CET. With 21 runners this presents the usual puzzle for punters, especially as most of the field are running for the first time in several months. However the money has all come for one horse - William Haggas´ Penitent (Johnny Murtagh). This lightly-raced 4yo has finished first or second on all his 5 career starts, and is very likely much better than a handicapper. Favourites have a good recent record here, but in our view he represents no value at all at the likely odds, especially as his inexperience could count against him in such a race, while on pedigree he is not certain to stay a mile on this track. We would prefer to bet each-way on top-weight Mia´s Boy (Chris Dywer/ Eddie Ahern), a very consistent performer, Albaaqaa (Paul Hanagan), one of 5 runners trained by Richard Fahey, Tiger Reigns (Micha el Dods/ Phillip Makin), a son of Tiger Hll who is a specialist miler, or Smokey Oakey (Mark Tompkins/ Jimmy Quinn), owned by Judi Dench, who won this in 2008. Lang Shining (Martin Dwyer), gaving his first race for Jamie Osborne after being bought out of the Stoute stable, looks the best long-shot.

Penitent is drawn one, right on the inside rail, which is possibly a good draw, but we should know more after the first race at 15.00, the consolation race over the same distance. Benandonner (Mike Murphy/ Andrea Atzeni) is drawn one here and he has a good chance, being fit from the all-weather. Last time he finished just in front of Audemar (Eddie Vaughan/ Dwyer) and that one looks one of several dangers in a wide-open event.

Main supporting feature is the listed Cammidge Trophy over 6 furlongs at 15.35. David Nicholls saddles 3 of the 15 runners, with Tax Free (Franny Norton) clearly the best of the trio; he is best in at the weights, the only problem being the distance, as he is arguably better over 5 furlongs. If he fails to get the trip, Redford (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) could be the one to take advantage.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kiwi Bay - Ben Chorley - Irish Heartbeat
2. Race: Tax Free - Redford - Prime Defender
3. Race: Penitent - Mull Of Killough - Huzzah
4. Race: Squires Gate - Mirror Lad - Mayhab
5. Race: Chain Of Events - Thingathong - Corres
6. Race: Spirit Of A Nation - Red Jade - Aspro Mavro
7. Race: Red Wine - Warne`S Way - Heathyards Junior
8. Race: Starla Dancer - Trans Sonic - Abayaan