Sunday, January 31, 2010

Hereford, Plumpton and Kempton (a.w.)

Should racing prove possible at Hereford, easily the most interesting race will be the novice chase at 16.05 in which Henrietta Knight´s big Cheltenham hope Somersby (Tony McCoy) faces 4 opponents, best of whom should be Den of Iniquity (Warren Greatrex/ Paddy Brennan) - a faller last time- and Epidavros (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), in receipt of quite a bit of weight. However Somersby must win this to keep alive his claims for the "Arkle" for which he is currently second favourite.

At Plumpton, Charlie Mann and his jockey Noel Fehily could be the team to follow. German-bred Fin Vin de Leu, quite a useful flat handicapper for Mark Johnston, makes his hurdling debut at 14.45 CET and should go well, while King Brex at 15.15 and Bench Warrant at 16.15 have top-weight in their respective handicaps but still hold good chances. Best bet here could be Sure Josie Sure (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) in the mares novice hurdle at 15.45. She started at odds-on for a similar event last time but was brought down at the first; granted better luck she can recover those losses today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alhaque - Fin Vin De Leu - Blue Tango
2. Race: King Brex - Cockatoo - Marc Of Brilliance
3. Race: Sure Josie Sure - Megasue - Good Faloue
4. Race: Youngstown - Maktu - Kawagino
5. Race: Evella - Grands Crus - Ballycracken
6. Race: One Cornetto - Prince Louis - Stop The Show




At Kempton, where there are quite small fields, the best event is the conditions race over 7 furlongs at 16.55. Top-rated here is Aeroplane (David Evans/ George Baker), but he is running for the 7th time this month and is possibly getting a bit tired. Elna Bright (BR Johnson/ Liam Keniry) is in good form, having won two good handicaps, but they were both over 7 furlongs and he is trying this trip for the first time in ages. Our choice therefore is Fathsta (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley), behind Elna Bright last time, but who ran two good races over this CD in December. "Blue" horses seem to be doing well these days, and we hope to see Martin Dwyer land a double on Blue Zephry for his father-in-law Willie Muir at 15.35 and on Blue Lyric for Luca Cumani at 17.25.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Blue Zephyr - The Strig - American Light
2. Race: Boogie Waltzer - R Woody - Texas Queen
3. Race: Stonecrabstomorrow - Misaro - Dvinsky
4. Race: Aeroplane - Elna Bright - Orpenindeed
5. Race: Blue Lyric - Cuthbert - Egyptology
6. Race: Ocean Legend - Erinjay - Alqaahir