Saturday, November 28, 2009

Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

it´s only a handicap, but the Hennessy Gold Cup over 3 1/4 miles at 15.40 CET today is clearly the top event of a star-studded weekend in Britain and Ireland. It has attracted a really strong field with 19 runners likely to go to post, with all eyes on top-weight Denman (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who will be attempting to repeat his famous 2007 victory here. Since then he has beaten Kauto Star in the Gold Cup, suffered heart problems and then ran another good race against Kauto Star when runner-up in the latest Gold Cup. He won two years ago with exactly the same weight, 11st 12 lbs, but the difference is that he is now rated 13 lbs higher and the opposition looks much better this time. He is clearly the class act in the field and looks certain to start a warm favourite, but, personally, we do not believe that he can give so much weight away today. His own stable companions My Will (Nick Scholfield) and What a Friend (Sam Thomas) look very dangerous on these terms, while we strongly fancy the Queen´s Barbers Shop (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty), whose trainer is in great form (4 winners already at this meeting). Northern challenger Killiglen (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan) is another big hopeful, as well as the Irish raiders headed by Snowy Mountain (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) and War of Attrition (Mouse Morris/ Niall Madden), while Evan Williams, who won here in 2006 with State of Play, tries again with the same horse (Paul Moloney) as well as top hunter-chaser Cappa Bleu (Wayne Hutchinson), both of whom look very leniently handicapped on bottom weight. Denman represents the top N.H. team and it would be great if he could win, but our 3 against the field are Barbers Shop, Killiglen and Cappa Bleu.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Finian`S Rainbow - Sereth - Highest Start
2. Race: Fistral Beach - Sharajan - Quinz
3. Race: Big Buck`S - Blazing Bailey - Duc De Regniere
4. Race: Au Courant - Pasco - Or Bleu
5. Race: Denman - Barbers Shop - What A Friend
6. Race: Fairyland - Nampour - Silk Hall
7. Race: Shillingstone - Scots Dragoon - Borero