Friday, November 06, 2009

Breeders Cup - First day

The annual racing jamboree that is the Breeders Cup begins today at Santa Anita in Los Angeles with a very strong European challenge. The Europeans won 5 races here last year and hopes are high that this total can be equalled this time. Because of the time difference, the races are run in the late evening CET, with the first event this evening, the Marathon, at 21.35. This should go to a European runner, with Mastery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) holding the best chance.

He holds Father Time (Henry Cecil/ Eddie Ahern) on St. Leger form, and last year´s winner Ralph Beckett´s Muhannak (Ryan Moore) appears to be out of form. The Juvenile Fillis Turf at 22.08 has the only German runner of the meeting in the line-up, Peter Schiergen´ s Junia Tepzia (Kieren Fallon). The filly, who stays in the States after the race, is unbeaten after two runs in Italy but will do well to be placed. Lillie Langtry (Aidan O´Brien/ Johnny Murtagh) is regarded as the Irish banker of the meeting, while House of Grace (Kenneth McPeek/ Michael Luzzi) looks the best American. McPeek also has good prospects in the following Juvenile Fillies at 22.45, where he has two runners, but we prefer Always a Princess (Bob Baffert/ Garrett Gomez). The Fillies and Mares Turf at 23.23 looks between Midday (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and last year´s winner Forever Together (Jonathan Sheppard/ Julien Leparoux).

The hottest favourite of the evening is likely to be another 2008 winner, Ventura (Bobby Frankel/ Garrett Gomez) in the Filly and Mare Sprint at 00.02, but we are interested in a longshot here - Only Green (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier); she has come basically as a travelling companion to the much higher profile Goldikova, who runs in the mile tomorrow, but won in good style last time and may be up to this huge leap in class. Finally, the Ladies Classic, to be run at 00.45 (!) looks much more open now that Zenyatta goes for tomorrow´s Classic. Godolphin´s Music Note (Rajiv Maragh) and Cocoa Beach (Richard Migliore) finished second and third to Zenyatta last year and could move up a place, but Careless Jewel (Josie Campbell/ Robert Landry) looks a big danger, while the Europeans will be rooting for Rainbow View (John Gosden/ Leparoux).

Betting forecast:
3. Race: Mastery - Father Time - Nite Light
4. Race: Lillie Langtry - House Of Grace - Junia Tepzia
5. Race: Blind Luck - Connie And Michael - Negligee
6. Race: Forever Together - Magical Fantasy - Midday
7. Race: Ventura - Informed Decision - Sara Louise
8. Race: Music Note - Careless Jewel - Rainbow View