Friday, August 21, 2009

York Ebor meeting: day four

Today is the fourth and final day of York´s Ebor meeting and the main feature is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.25 CET. This is one of the few races in the calendar in which 2yo´s compete against their elders. They receive a massive weight allowance and ir is quite suprising that they do not try more often. Only one of today´s 17 runners is a 2yo- Radiohead (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer) and he must have a good chance judging by the way he scored over this trip at Royal Ascot.

The last 2yo to score was Kingsgate Native (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and he returns to this CD with good prospects after an easy success at Goodwood, with several of these opponents behind. Originally trained by John Best, he was bought by Cheveley Park as a stallion, but after failing at his new job, was brought back into training. There are two more previous winners in the field, consistent Borderlescott, who won last year when the race was run at Newmarket, and Reverence (2006), who needs soft ground to show his best form. Art Connoisseur (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) won the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot, but was well beaten in the July Cup, both races over 6 furlongs. Although these sprint races often throw up surprise results, we feel confident that only Radiohead or Kingsgate Native can win this.

Main supporting feature is the Group Three Strensall Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.15. Stoute and Moore have another good chance here with Perfect Stride. However Spring of Fame (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), moving up in grade after an easy win at Deauville, and Forgotten Voice (Jeremy Noseda/ Johnny Murtagh), fourth in the Sussex Stakes, offer serious opposition. Stoute and Moore also team up with the likely favourite Confront, who is clear top-rated in the listed 7 furlongs race at 15.50. Once again the main danger comes from the Godolphin team in the shape of Huntdown, but Dream Eater (Andrew Balding/ William Buick) could also figure prominently.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Braveheart Move - Stanstill - Classic Vintage
2. Race: Forgotten Voice - Russian Sage - Perfect Stride
3. Race: Confront - Huntdown - Secret Society
4. Race: Kingsgate Native - Radiohead - Amour Propre
5. Race: Noble Greek - Businessman - Arry`S Orse
6. Race: Swingkeel - Aaim To Prosper - Saga De Tercey