Grand National!

Purists can justly claim that the Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most important N.H. race of the year, but the Grand National run this afternoon at 17.15 CET at Aintree, is much older (first run in 1839), much more valuable - worth more than half a million GBP to the winner, much better known and of course a much bigger betting event. With 40 runners in a handicap, the possibilities are almost endless, although the class horss have dominated in recent years.

Even so, it seems virtually impossible to win with a high weight. The last top weight to score was the great Red Rum in 1977, trained by Ginger McCain, whose son Donald now saddles top-weight Cloudy Lane. Red Rum, who won the race 3 times, was also the last repeat winner, which means that Silver Birch and Comply or Die, the winners in 2007 and 2008, face a stiff task. The latter has been heavily backed this week, but is 15 lbs higher than last year. The two best-backed however are My Will (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and Butlers Cabin (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), ridden by the two top N.H.jockeys. Ruby Walsh has an excellent record in the race, having won twice and finished in the frame 4 times from only 8 rides, while this is McCoy´s hoodoo race and he has been repeatedly unlucky.

The same goes for Paul Nicholls, who has endured nothing but bad luck at Aintree. However in our view My Will is still the one to beat, as his fifth place in the Gold Cup is the best form on offer. He must not only beat the jinx on Nicholls, but also the terrible record of French-breds who have repeatedly flopped here. Thr ar argumnts for and against every runner in the race, and in the end it will all come down to luck in running, but our short list comprises My Will, Butlers Cabin, Rambling Minster (Keith and James Reveley), and State of Play (Evan Williams - hoping for the first Welsh winner in over a century- Paul Moloney). It has rained overnight, but the ground is still good; should it turn soft, we would also give chances to two Irish raiders Black Appalachi (Dessie Hughees/ Denis O´Regan) and Southern Vic (Ted Walsh/ Niall Madden)

Betting forecast: My Will - Butler`S Cabin - Rambling Minster