Saturday, March 28, 2009

Doncaster today - the flat season begins

Today is the official opening of the flat season in the U.K. with a strong card at Doncaster and some huge fields. Main feature is the Lincoln Handicap over a straight mile at 16.55 CET, the first leg of the traditional Spring Double. This race has been increased in value and is now a major event in its own right. The weather and the draw are the two factors which could play a big role here, but we shall not know much about the effect of the draw until the first couple of races have been run, although in the past high numbers have usually had the advantage. The threatened rain has mainly stayed away, so that the ground at present is fast, althougn rain is still expected, and this is bad news for the favourite Expresso Star (John Gosden/ Jimmy Fortune), who needs it soft and may still be pulled out. Gosden´s other runner Charm School (Richard Mullen) is less ground-dependent, and a specialist for this going is Luca Cumani´s Swop (Dane O´Neill). Orthers with a chance in this ve ry open race are Royal Power (David and Adrian Nicholls) - winner of the German 2,000 Guineas 3 years ago -, recent all-weather winner Flipando (David Barron/ Phillip Makin), course specialist Blythe Knight (John Quinn/ Freddie Tylicki) and bottom weight Benandonner (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan). The substitute race, the Spring Mile at 15.45 also had 22 runners, is equally tricky. Ex-German Raptor (Karl Burke/ Jim Crowley) could run well here at a big price, while lightly-raced Fireside (Michael Jarvis/ Jimmy Dortne) is the likely favourite. Spectait (Jonjo O´Neill/ Fran Berry), running in the colours of big jumping owner JP McManus, has won his last 3 races on the all-weather and Slugger O´Toole (Stee Williams/ Richard Kingscpote) is another fancy. The listed Cammidge Trophy over 6 furlongs is another open affair with 16 runners. David Nicholls is also dangerous in these events and Inxile, with son Adrian in the saddle, has an obvious chance, together with Prime Defender (B arry and Michael Hills) and Knot in Woopd (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan). Another previous winner of the German 2000 Guineas running here is Aviso (Barney Curley/ Tom Queally) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 18.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Swilly Ferry - Bond Together - Could It Be Magic
2. Race: Fireside - Spectait - Mangham
3. Race: Prime Defender - Vitznau - Icelandic
4. Race: Expresso Star - Swop - Charm School
5. Race: London Bridge - Classically - Above Average
6. Race: Planetary Motion - Shady Gloom - Can Can Star
7. Race: This Ones For Eddy - Ghufa - Bridgewater Boys