The good news today is that Ryan Moore returns after his long injury break. He has 2 rides for Sir Michael Stoute at Ascot this afternoon. Although he is in our opinion one of the 2 best jockeys ridings in the U.K. at the moment (together with Frankie), we won´t be betting on his mounts, as it often happens that jockeys need a few days to get back to form after a bad injury. In addition the Stoute stable form remains poor.
Our selections for these races are: Dimension (James Fnashawe/ Kieren Fallon) at 15.20 CET and The Bells O Poever (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) at 16.30. Main event at Ascot is the listed race for 3yo´s over 1 3/4 miles at 17.05. Highland Castle (David Elsworth/Jamie Spencer) is top-rated here, but we prefer Solar Sky (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), a highly promising young stayer who could be well up to group class.
The rest of the afternoon racing in the U.K. and Ireland is all over jumps - and mainly a very low level- but there is a good card at this evening´s all-weather meeting at Dundalk. Main feature is the Group 3 Diamond Stakes over 10 1 /2 furlongs at 22.00, with runners from some of the top Irish stables, including 2 each from Aidan O´Brien and John Oxx. Of these we prefer the Aga Khan´s Zanughan (Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh), but Bob le Beau (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry) looks a big danger.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dimension - Azameera - Tuscania
2. Race: Mundana - Classic Colori - Primaeval
3. Race: Midnight Oil - The Bells O Peover - Kinyras
4. Race: Highland Castle - Barbican - Buthelezi
5. Race: Cunning Act - Colloquial - Bow To No One
6. Race: Louis The Pious - Sirius Prospect - Elusivity
Friday, September 30, 2011
Ryan Moore at Ascot today
Thursday, September 29, 2011
4 low-level meetings today
Racing continues at an extremely low level in the U.K. today, with four very modest meetings. German-bred Northern Flyer (John Quinn/ Brian Toomey) runs in the 9 furlongs handicap at 16.30 CET at Wolverhampton. He is very inconsistent, and not much good at the best of times, but he often runs well here and has a definite each-way chance at a decent price. The same goes for Garstang (Bruce Hellier/ Saleem Golam) over 6 furlongs half an hour later. Our old friend Bruce has just about the worst strike rate in Britain, but this horse should be thereabouts today. With Saeed bin Suroor now finally hitting top form, we would not be surprised to see him saddle the winners of both divisions of the 2yo maiden Warwick -Asifa (Jimmy Fortune) at 16.10 and Famous Poet (Richard Hills) an hour later. A German-bred we like here is Double Handful (Venetia Williams/ Adam Kirby) in the 1 mile 7 furlongs handicap at 18.10; Final Liberation (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders), going for a four-timer , is the obvious danger.
Local trainer Donald McCain is often the man to follow at Bangor, and he can wln the first two races this afternoon with hurdling debutant Hollow Tree (Timmy Murphy) at 15.20 and novice chaser Dunowen Point (Tony McCoy) half an hour later. Waldsee (Jo Davies/ Tom Cannon), who runs in the novice hurdle at 16.20 has a superb German pedigree - he is a half-brother to Derby winner Waldpark and to the dam of Arc fancy Masked Marvel, but has very little of their ability. However he could go well in this weak company, although Nicky Henderson´s hurdling newcomer Mush Mir (McCoy) is obviously going to be hard to beat.
Richard Hughes won 3 races at Kempton´s evening meeting yesterday and can follow up with Mishrif (John Jenkins) in the last race at 22.10; he was an easy CD winner a fortnight ago and today´s opposition looks no better.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
3 meetings today
Tuesday is almost always the worst day of the week as far as quality racing is concerned, and today is no exception. At Chepstow the mile handicap at 17.00 CET looks the most interesting race and Encore un Fois (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), just touched off last time at Brighton by Ancient Greece (George Baker/ Dane O´Neill), tries to take revenge for that defeat, but there could again be little in it.
However there are plenty more with chances here and we prefer the in-form Mr. Udawaga (Bernard Llewellyn/ Martin Lane), going for a CD hat-trick, and top-weight Mr. Osgood (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley). The "best" race of the day is probably the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.40 at Ayr, in which Dare to Dance (Jeremy Noseda/ Paul Hanagan) will start a red-hot favourite. Winner of the last two of his three starts, he was ante-post favourite for last week´ s Cambridgeshire until Noseda pulled him out because of the fast ground. The going will be much softer today and he is the most likely winner, but he is no value at the likely odds; perhaps Tres Coronas (David Barron/ Lee Newman) or Calaf (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) are better each-way alternatives. Top-weight Waldvogel (Nicky Richards/ Tom Eaves) ie a horse we like and has a great German pedigree - he is a half-brother to Deutsches Derby winner Waldpark - but this is the wrong trip for him and we are not sure that he will l ike ground as soft as this.
Sedgefield stages N.H. racing this afternoon and we expect Irish trainer Gordon Elliott and Tony McCoy to team up to land a double with Russian War in the beginners chase at 15.50 and the novice hurdle with Mngr Hangment in the novice hurdle at 17.20. Russian Waar jumped badly last time at Listowel and finally fell, but the ground was very bad that day; he was easily the best of these over hurdles and on this better ground can get back on the winning trail. Hanger Managment has won his last 4 races, including two here, and can continue his winning run at the main expense of Shifting Gold (Kevin Ryan/ Brian Toomey).