3 poor meetings today

poor racing at today´s 3 Cards, and while Kempton and Wolverhampton stage all-weather flat racing, there is N.H. action at a very poor level at Southwell. This can be a tricky course, especially in today´s testing condtions, and it usually pays to stick with horses that have already shown good course form. We therefore make Anay Turge (Nigel Hawke/ Kieron Edgar) out best bet of the day in the novice hurdle at 15.15 CET; this 9yo is a smart chaser over this trip of 2miles, but had never won over hurdles until 12 days ago when easily scoring over this CD; he has a 7 lbs penalty now but the opposition does not look formidable and he can follow up here. Hopatina (Neil Mulholland/ Michael Byrne) has been much improved this season, winning all 3 starts including this CD, and can complete a fourtimer in the handicap hurdle at 15.50; he is up a lot in the weights, but again the opposition looks weak.
Easily the best flat racing comes Wolverhampton where the 2 miles handicap at 16.40 looks competitive even with only 6 runners. As is often the case, most of them have been running over hurdles and Communicator (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) ran a great race on his hurdles debut before Chtistmas when runner-up to the smart Josses Hill at Newbury. Since then he has also run a good race on the flat and is the selection here; However Kashmir Peak (John Quinn/ Tom Eaves) is by far the best of these over hurdles and is entered in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday; he can certainly make a race of it with the selection. In the 8 1/2 furlongs conditions race at 18.10. we shall take a chance on Birdman (David Simcock( Andrea Atzeni), although he is badly off at the weights; however he is in good form which counts for a lot in such events.
The best race at Kempton is the mile handicap at 17.00 which looks wide open. Our tentative selection is Silverheels (Paul Cole/ Jim Crowley), who has dropped down the ratings a bit but has not run at all badly on his last starts in arguably hotter company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Royaume Bleu - Over And Above - Somerby
2. Race: Trozulon - Farbreaga - Royal Riviera
3. Race: Flementime - Brave Vic - El Indio
4. Race: Anay Turge - Vikekhal - Vivaccio
5. Race: Hopatina - Silver Wren - Knockraheen
6. Race: Alaccordion - Cloudy Dawn - Fidelor
7. Race: Whispering Harry - Marleno - Lodgician

Cheltenham clues in Scotland and Ireland

The Cheltenham Festival starts in 5 weeks on Tuesday and today´s meetings at Musselburgh and Punchestown should give us some valuable clues. The weather in Scotland has not been nearly as bad as in England, and Musselburgh´s card is their best of the N.H. season. The better groiudn shoudl cefrzainly suoit Kie (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), as he is out of a Surumu mare, and he should go close in the Scottish Champion Chase, actually handicap, at 15.00 CET. The unknown quantity here is ex-French Upepito (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), but the trainer, who is in fantastic form, has entered him for Cheltenham, in which case he miust get involved here. The listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 15.30 is the headline feature, and German-bred Broughton (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) is likely to start a hot favourite after his excellent hurdling debut. He was the top lot at the Baden-Baden yearling sales in 2011, ironically bought for the Maktoums by Ferguson, who now owns and trains him.

However this will not be easy, as Nicky Henderson´s useful bumper Adeupas d´ycy (Barry Geraghty) is a danger, as are the two Irish challengers Clarcam (Gordon Elliott/ Maguire) and Space Ship (Robbie Hennessy/ Sam Twiston-Davies), who was actually rated a few pounds better than Broughton on the flat and also made a pleasing debut over sticks. Henderson and Geraghty should in any case take the Future Champions Chase at 16.30 (can´t see any champions here, but still..) with Ericht, who is weighted to reverse earlier form with Funny Star (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob).There are 2 German-breds in the Scottish County hurdle at 16.30, Lyvius (Henderson/ Geraghty) and Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Paul Bohan) and both could be placed; the lightly-weighted Franciscan and Clever Cookie are the dangers here, but we shall stick with Local Hero, and also with Fährhof-bred Los Nadis, who runs his best races here, at 17.30.

There is also a decent card at Punchestown and we expect another Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh benefit, as they can take both the main events, the listed novice hurdle at 15.10 and the Grade Two Tied Cottage Chase an hour later, both over 2 miles. In the former race their candidate Wicklow Brave is moving up in class after a very easy win of his first hurdle race, after 3 bumper victories. but he looks the real deal and should go on from here to much better things. Arvika Liegonnaire in the later race is unbeaten at Punchestown and should stay so after today. In both cases the Gigginstown Stud runners are the main dangers.

Musselburgh - betting forecast:
1. Race: Mister Dillon - Crowning Jewel - Pay The King
2. Race: Medieval Chapel - Powerstown Dreams - Clondaw Hero
3. Race: Upepito - Kie - His Excellency
4. Race: Broughton - Clarcam - Adeupas D`ycy
5. Race: Funny Star - Ericht - Top Of The Range
6. Race: Yorkist - Sametegal - Lyvius
7. Race: Brassick - Themilanhorse - That`S Rhythm
8. Race: Sud Pacifique - Los Nadis - Scots Gaelic

Plenty of racing today

With all 3 British meetings over jumps going ahead, plus N.H. racing from Ireland at Fairyhouse, and 2 all-weather meetings, punters are spoilt for choice today, although it must be said that the races do not look easy with very heavy ground and some very small fields, with plenty of non-runners.

There are only 3 runners in the day´s top race, the Grade One Scilly Isles novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.25 CET at Sandown. Small field novice chases on heavy ground do not make the ideal betting medium, but even so, it will be a shock if Oscar Whisky (Nicky Henderson/ barry Geraghty) fails to win here. He has a stone in hand on official ratings, was easily the best of these over hurdles (third in the 2011 Champion Hurdle) and has made a satisfactory start to his chasing career. We also like Pistol (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) in the opener here at 14.15, where Saroque (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) looks the main danger, and the latter´s team can score with Relax at 16.35 and Last Shot at 17.10.

Two valuable handicaps are the main features at Ffos Las,. the Welsh Champion Hurdle at 15.05 and the West Wales Grand National at 15.40. Both looki very tricky, even thoigh there atrr only 7 runners in the former Event. Saphir du Rheu (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham) is clearly very smart and has won his last 2 races in excellent style; however he has been severely trrated by the handicapper and we are dubious about his scoring off this huge weight. German-bred Home Run (David Pipe/ Kierton Edgar) and Whisper (Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) finished well behind him at Sandown two months ago, but meet him on much better terms now and can gain revenge. We shall take a chance with Home Run, even though he out of the handicap, as this close relation to Hurricane Run will love the ground. Junior (Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) has top weight in the National, but is certainly not out of it, as he is well handicapped on earlier form; however this is wide open, although we cannot believe that Moujntainous (Richard Lee/ Pauil Molomey) will follow up his Welsh Grand Natioinal win under 12 löbs extra.

Tony McCoy is at Wetherby today. mainly to ride Jonjo O´Neill´s Shutthefrontdoor in the Grade Two novice chase at 16.20. It is not certain that he will stay today´s trip of 3 miles 1 furlong in these testing conditions, but he is the best horse in the field and should win. Consistent Green Flag (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchansn) looks the safest alternative. Sue Smith rarely leaves this track without a winner and we expect her No Planning (Ryan Mania) toi take the handicap chase at 15.10. The all-weather racing is less exciting, but two we like at Lingfield are Mia´s Boy (Chris Dwyer/ Robert Tart) at 15.55 and Sea Soldier (Andrew Balding/ Rob Hornby) at 17.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pistol - Spanish Arch - Saroque
2. Race: Desert Cry - Eastlake - Pepite Rose
3. Race: Benvolio - Manyriverstocross - Benvolio
4. Race: Tatenen - Fine Parchment - Aachen
5. Race: Pete The Feat - Ardkilly Witness - Roalco De Farges
6. Race: Last Shot - Un Anjou - Sew On Target